The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its global oil demand forecast for 2026 downward in its June report, citing ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The report, released amid heightened U.S.-Iran-Israel tensions, projected a demand increase of 970,000 barrels per day, down from May’s estimate of 1.17 million barrels per day. This marks the second consecutive month of downward adjustments, following a drop from April’s 1.38 million barrels per day. Despite this, OPEC forecasts a rebound in 2027 with demand growth of 1.73 million barrels per day, up from May’s 1.54 million barrels per day.
Iran’s crude oil production fell by 546,000 barrels per day from April to May, the only OPEC nation to record a decline. The drop aligns with the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran fully closed on Wednesday. President Donald Trump claimed the U.S. has successfully moved over 100 million barrels of oil through the strait, attributing this to U.S. control over the waterway. Energy Secretary Chris Wright cited the Jones Act waiver as a contributing factor.
Meanwhile, the CEO of Frontline, a leading oil tanker company, expressed optimism about a potential U.S.-Iran agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Lars Barstad stated that commercial ship traffic could quickly increase if security improves, though it may not return to pre-war levels of 130-140 vessels daily. Currently, only 5-10 ships transit the strait daily. Some shipping companies have positioned tankers near the Gulf to capitalize on a potential reopening, though Frontline has not done so. Barstad noted the volatile security situation, with Trump threatening and then canceling a military strike against Iran in recent days.