A new study suggests the rise of smartphones, particularly the iPhone, may have contributed to the decline in U.S. birth rates over the past two decades. The research, published as a working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), found that regions with early iPhone access saw significant reductions in births between 2007 and 2011.
Core Findings
The study, co-authored by economist Caitlin Myers of Middlebury College, analyzed birth rates in areas where AT&T—then the sole iPhone provider—offered service. It found that in the first four years after the iPhone's release, births among women aged 15 to 19 dropped by 4.5% to 8%, while births among women aged 20 to 24 decreased by 3.2% to 6.6%. The decline was most pronounced among teenagers but affected all age groups.
Methodology and Context
The researchers leveraged AT&T's initial monopoly on iPhone sales as a natural experiment, comparing birth rates in areas with and without iPhone availability. Even after accounting for economic factors like home prices and urbanization, the study found a persistent correlation between iPhone adoption and lower fertility rates.
Broader Trends
U.S. fertility rates have been declining since the early 2000s, with the lowest recorded rates in 2024. While the Great Recession initially explained some of the decline, birth rates continued to fall even as the economy recovered. The study suggests that the iPhone's introduction in 2007 may have played a role in this persistent trend.
Possible Explanations
The researchers hypothesize that smartphones may have altered social interactions, increased isolation, or shifted priorities away from family planning. However, the study does not establish causation, only a statistical correlation. Myers noted that the findings could explain a third to half of the fertility decline during the period studied.
Criticism and Limitations
Some experts caution that the study's findings are correlational and do not prove that smartphones directly caused lower birth rates. Other factors, such as changing cultural attitudes or economic pressures, may also play a role. The study's focus on the early iPhone era also limits its applicability to modern smartphone usage.