The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to commercial shipping despite the U.S.-Iran deal announced on Sunday, with only seven vessels passing through since the agreement. Ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic shows that as many as 580 ships are waiting in the Gulf, with about 75% of tankers stationary near major oil export terminals in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. The strait, which typically handles a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies, has been effectively closed by Iran since late February following U.S. and Israeli strikes. Experts cite security risks, mines, and tolls as major obstacles to resuming normal traffic.
Security Concerns Persist
Shipowners and analysts warn that it will take weeks, if not months, for transit to resume. The CEO of Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. Lines told the Financial Times that operations will not restart until safety is confirmed. The U.S. Joint Maritime Information Center has maintained a 'SEVERE' threat level due to ongoing blockade operations. President Trump's claims that ships are moving freely have not been substantiated by tracking data or industry reports.
Humanitarian Impact
About 600 vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, with approximately 18,000 Indian mariners among those stranded. The International Transport Workers' Federation has called for urgent evacuation plans, citing 'unbearable' conditions on ships. At least 14 mariners have died during the conflict, including three Indian nationals killed in a U.S. strike on an Iranian tanker.
Industry Caution
Major shipping companies describe transiting the strait as 'very risky' and are waiting for firm security guarantees. The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remains in effect until Friday, pending the execution of the ceasefire. Insurers and governments must coordinate closely before operations can resume, according to Mitsui O.S.K. Lines.
Geopolitical Context
The U.S.-Iran deal aims to lift restrictions on traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, but its implementation remains uncertain. Iran has previously attacked ships attempting to pass without permission, while the U.S. has disabled vessels deemed non-compliant. The strait's reopening will depend on sustained de-escalation and clear safety assurances.