Meta is developing a new AI-powered prediction market app called Arena, according to internal documents and employee reports. The app will allow users to bet on real-world events using virtual play money, with plans to potentially introduce real-money wagering in the future. The project is part of Meta's broader strategy to create standalone applications based on emerging online behaviors.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has directed a team to build the app, which will use the company's large language model, Llama, to generate questions and personalized recommendations. The AI will also resolve markets by determining whether events occurred as predicted. The app is expected to compete with existing platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have seen significant growth in recent years.
The prediction market sector has expanded rapidly since a 2018 Supreme Court ruling overturned a ban on online betting in the U.S. Americans wagered approximately $150 billion on sporting events alone last year, according to the American Gaming Association. Meta's previous attempt at a prediction market, Forecast, was shut down in 2022 after launching in 2020.
Meta has not yet commented on the project, but internal documents suggest the company is serious about entering the prediction market space. The app will operate independently from Meta's existing social networking platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger.