Commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait fell to its lowest level in months on July 26, as Yemen’s Houthi forces continued attacks on Saudi-linked shipping. Eleven commodity vessels passed through the narrow waterway linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with seven being oil tankers, according to Kpler data. The disruption threatens a key route for Saudi crude exports, which have shifted from the Strait of Hormuz due to ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions.
Houthi Attacks and Saudi Response
The Houthis, aligned with Iran, have escalated attacks on Saudi oil installations, including strikes on Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu. The group declared a naval blockade, targeting Saudi exports and disrupting Red Sea traffic. In response, Saudi Arabia conducted strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.
Shipping Disruptions and Economic Impact
The reduced traffic has caused crude oil prices in the Middle East, Europe, and Africa to surge to two-month highs. Four vessels exited the Red Sea on Sunday, including a Hong Kong-flagged VLCC carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi and Emirati crude to China. Another VLCC, the New Pearl, also headed to China with 2 million barrels of Saudi crude.
U.S.-Iran Tensions and Diplomatic Efforts
While the U.S. and Iran have paused military strikes to allow for peace talks, other conflicts persist. The Houthis’ actions have expanded the U.S.-Iran conflict, which has already choked oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has not indicated a willingness to resume talks with the U.S., and the situation in Hormuz remains unresolved.
Long-Term Implications
Analysts warn that a sustained recovery in shipping flows could take time, as operators await clearer evidence of safe transit. The Houthis’ blockade and Saudi strikes highlight the complex challenges facing negotiators, who must address maritime security and the normalization of traffic through vital straits.