Mortgage interest rates have climbed to 6.75% in 2026, up from around 5.75% in March, according to Zillow. The increase is attributed to renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which has pushed oil prices higher and reignited inflation concerns. This marks a shift from earlier in 2025, when rates dropped by about a full percentage point following multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
Forecast for Fall 2026
The most likely scenario is that rates will remain in the mid- to high-6% range or increase slightly. Both Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predict rates will stay unchanged for the rest of 2026, with the MBA forecasting stability through 2027.
Factors Influencing Rates
Elevated inflation and ongoing geopolitical tensions are key factors keeping rates from dropping. John Ortega, a senior home loan specialist at Churchill Mortgage, notes that oil prices could rise further, potentially pushing rates higher. Jeff DerGurahian, head economist at loanDepot, agrees that higher oil prices could put upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Expert Perspectives
DerGurahian and Ortega emphasize that the current economic conditions—particularly inflation and geopolitical instability—are the primary drivers of the rate environment. While some predict rates could stabilize, others warn of potential increases if oil prices surge further.