Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by five points in a new poll of Texas' U.S. Senate race, marking his largest lead in any public survey during the general election period. The Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll, conducted between July 15 and July 17, shows Talarico at 45% and Paxton at 40%, with a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points. The poll also found that Talarico leads among voters without a college degree and dominates among independents, while Paxton has weaker Republican support than in previous surveys.
The race is one of the most closely watched in the nation, with Democrats hoping to end a 30-year losing streak in statewide elections in Texas. Republicans, however, argue that Talarico's past statements on social issues and policing could hurt his chances.
Campaign Controversies
Talarico has faced criticism from Republicans over his past statements on gun control, gender-affirming care for minors, and policing. A 2020 video resurfaced showing Talarico calling the Black Lives Matter protests a "really exciting" opportunity to end "over-policing" of communities of color. He has since positioned himself as a moderate, pro-police candidate, but critics argue the video contradicts that stance.
Talarico also drew attention for renting a pickup truck for a campaign video, which some interpreted as an attempt to appear more "Texan." He previously drove a Chevy Colorado, but the truck in the video was linked to a rental company.
Republican Response
Paxton, who won his primary with an endorsement from Donald Trump, has criticized Talarico's positions as "weird" and out of step with Texas values. Republican National Committee spokesperson Zach Kraft called Talarico a "dangerous freak" and accused him of supporting policies that would "endanger the entire state."
Polling Context
The TPOR poll surveyed 1,048 likely voters, with 53% having voted for Trump in 2024 and 42% for Kamala Harris. The sample was slightly bluer than the 2024 Texas electorate, which favored Trump by 14 points. The poll also found that nearly one in five GOP voters were undecided or leaning toward Talarico.
The race remains competitive, with both candidates unable to break 50% in previous surveys. Democrats see an opportunity due to Trump's lagging approval ratings and Paxton's legal troubles, while Republicans argue that Talarico's progressive past could alienate Texas voters.