President Donald Trump’s approval rating has declined significantly, raising concerns for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Recent polls show Trump’s approval among white voters without a college degree has dropped from 61% in February 2025 to 46% this month, according to CNN polling data. Independents also show strong disapproval, with Trump at minus 52 in a CNN/SSRS poll and minus 53 in a YouGov poll.
Part 1: Immediate Action & Core Facts
1. Declining Approval Ratings
Trump’s overall approval rating remains in the low 30s, with key voter groups showing growing dissatisfaction. A Fox News poll found only 33% approve of his handling of the economy, while 47% believe the economy is performing poorly—the highest since 2023 under Joe Biden. His approval among white non-college-educated voters, a critical bloc for his 2024 victory, has fallen to 46%, with 54% disapproving.
2. Midterm Election Concerns
Democrats are leading in key Senate races, including Georgia and Texas, and hold an 11-point lead in generic congressional ballot polling. Republicans fear Trump’s unpopularity could hurt their chances of retaining control of Congress, with historical data showing presidents with poor approval ratings often see heavy midterm losses.
Part 2: Deeper Dive & Context
Policy Factors Driving Discontent
Two major policies are cited for Trump’s declining approval: his tariffs and the war in Iran. A July YouGov poll found 72% of voters blame tariffs for high prices, with 46% saying they have increased costs "a lot." The war in Iran, while justified by some, has also contributed to economic concerns.
White House Response
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle defended Trump’s record, stating he has "accomplished more for hardworking Americans" than any other president, citing job creation, inflation control, and housing affordability efforts. However, critics argue these claims do not align with voter perceptions.
Historical Context
Midterm elections often reflect the president’s standing. Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have historically seen their party lose an average of 37 House seats, compared to 14 for those above 50%. Trump’s Republicans lost 41 seats in 2018, while Biden’s Democrats lost only nine in 2022 despite his low approval.
Opposing Views
Democrats argue Trump’s policies have hurt affordability, while Republicans hope voters will focus on local issues rather than Trump’s national standing. Independents, a swing vote, remain deeply skeptical of Trump’s leadership.
Long-Term Implications
If Trump’s approval continues to decline, Republicans may struggle to retain control of Congress. Democrats are positioning the midterms as a referendum on Trump’s leadership, while Republicans aim to distance themselves from his unpopular policies.