A new Fox News poll reveals a competitive Texas Senate race between Democratic State Representative James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, with Talarico holding a narrow 3-point lead (51% to 48%). The poll, conducted among registered Texas voters, indicates that the race is far less settled than expected, given President Donald Trump's 14-point victory in the state in 2024.
Talarico's advantage grows to 6 points among extremely motivated and interested voters, suggesting strong enthusiasm within his base. The poll also highlights demographic divides, with Talarico leading among Black voters, moderates, younger Texans, and college-educated voters, while Paxton holds support among White evangelicals, rural voters, and older Texans.
The race has drawn national attention as Democrats aim to flip a traditionally Republican seat. Paxton's campaign spokesperson, Nick Maddux, dismissed the poll, stating that the 'only poll that matters is November 3rd' and criticizing Talarico's record on issues like reparations and energy policy. Talarico's campaign spokesperson, JT Ennis, countered by framing the election as a choice between 'the preacher over the pedophile protector,' referencing Paxton's legal troubles.
The poll also reveals that more voters are concerned about Paxton's character than Talarico's extremism, and Democrats are more motivated to vote than Republicans. Republican pollster Daron Shaw noted that Paxton must work to unify the GOP and address concerns among non-MAGA Republicans and independents.