Analysts and Gulf officials report that Iran is expanding its maritime pressure campaign beyond the Strait of Hormuz, targeting multiple trade routes and energy infrastructure to raise the cost of confrontation with the U.S. and its allies.
Iran’s strategy shifts from direct confrontation to calibrated escalation, aiming to convince Washington that containing the crisis is more costly than accommodating Tehran’s demands over regional maritime access. The approach involves gradually increasing disruptions to global shipping and energy flows, including threats to the Red Sea and Saudi energy assets, to test U.S. tolerance for economic disruption.
U.S. military considers seizing strategic islands used by Iran to stage attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The islands—Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tonb Islands—hold strategic importance due to their proximity to shipping lanes and territorial waters. Iran seized the islands in 1971 as British forces withdrew, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) later fortified them as military garrisons.
Immediate Developments
Iran’s escalation strategy
Analysts describe Iran’s approach as a "calibrated escalation" designed to widen the conflict without triggering full-scale war. The strategy relies on multiple maritime chokepoints and diverse targets, including drones, small boats, and potential chemical or conventional threats, to stretch U.S. and allied response capabilities. Michael Knights of the Washington Institute told Reuters that Iran’s goal is to "always have something new to bring every week"—whether a new geography, weapon type, or target—to maintain pressure.
U.S. military’s island seizure consideration
The U.S. is weighing military action to seize Abu Musa and the Tonb Islands, which Iran has used as staging grounds for attacks on international shipping. The islands’ proximity to the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global oil transit route—makes them a focal point for both Iran’s defensive posture and U.S. countermeasures. Iran’s IRGC has controlled the islands since the 1970s, transforming them into fortified garrisons.
Context and Background
Iran’s Maritime Strategy: Pressure Without War
Gulf officials and analysts argue that Iran’s campaign is not aimed at achieving a decisive military victory but rather at forcing concessions by making the status quo unsustainable. The strategy includes:
- Disrupting Hormuz traffic, which carries 20% of global oil consumption before the current conflict.
- Expanding threats to the Red Sea and Saudi energy infrastructure, signaling that no maritime chokepoint is off-limits.
- Testing U.S. and allied resolve by incrementally increasing the scope and intensity of attacks.
One Gulf source described Iran’s leadership as believing they can "out-escalate the United States" by maintaining a broader range of escalation options than Washington can counter.
Strategic Importance of the Disputed Islands
The islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tonb, and Lesser Tonb are located near the Strait of Hormuz, a bottleneck for global oil shipments. Their control allows Iran to:
- Monitor and restrict shipping in the northern approach to the strait.
- Launch drone and small-boat attacks on commercial vessels.
- Assert sovereignty claims over waters claimed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Iran seized the islands in 1971 as British forces withdrew, a move the UAE disputes. The IRGC has since militarized the islands, using them as forward operating bases for regional operations.
U.S. and Allied Responses
The U.S. has not confirmed plans to seize the islands but has escalated military posture in response to Iran’s attacks. The consideration of seizing the islands reflects a shift from defensive deterrence to offensive countermeasures to degrade Iran’s ability to project power in the Gulf.
Analysts note that Iran’s strategy relies on avoiding direct conflict while inflicting economic and political costs on the U.S. and its allies. The goal is to force negotiations on terms favorable to Tehran, including greater influence over maritime security in the Gulf.