Progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed holds a commanding lead in the final polls ahead of Tuesday’s Democratic Senate primary in Michigan, where he faces Rep. Haley Stevens for the nomination to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters. Meanwhile, Wisconsin Democrats prepare for their gubernatorial primary on August 11, where socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong is the frontrunner.
Michigan Senate Primary: El-Sayed Surges Ahead
El-Sayed, a former public health official endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and progressive lawmakers, leads Stevens by 10 points or more in recent polling, including a RealClearPolitics average of 50.5% to 40.3%. The race has become a proxy battle over the Democratic Party’s direction, with El-Sayed framing his campaign as a rejection of corporate influence and Stevens positioning herself as the pragmatic choice backed by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and labor groups.
The primary is widely viewed as a test of Democratic electability in Michigan, a battleground state Trump carried by fewer than 2 percentage points in 2024. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report rate the eventual November matchup—a contest between the Democratic nominee and Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers—as a toss-up. A July poll commissioned by the Michigan Education Association and Business Leaders for Michigan showed Stevens in a statistical tie with Rogers (46% to 45%), while El-Sayed trailed by 10 points (39% to 49%).
Wisconsin Gubernatorial Primary: Hong Leads Progressive Field
In Wisconsin, state Rep. Francesca Hong, a self-described democratic socialist, has consolidated support in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, with polls showing her as the clear frontrunner. The August 11 primary pits Hong against a crowded field, including Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who rejoined the race after initially suspending his campaign. The winner will face Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany in November.
Progressive leaders, including Sanders, have framed the Michigan and Wisconsin primaries as critical tests of whether socialist-backed candidates can win in purple states. Sanders argued on Meet the Press that El-Sayed’s campaign represents a broader movement among Democratic-leaning voters, citing a poll indicating that a third of Democrat-aligned voters now identify as democratic socialists.
Key Dates and Race Dynamics
- Michigan Senate Primary: Tuesday, August 4
- Wisconsin Gubernatorial Primary: Tuesday, August 11
- General Election: November 4
The Michigan race has drawn national attention due to its potential impact on Senate control and the Democratic Party’s ideological divide. El-Sayed has criticized outside spending against him, including funding from groups aligned with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), while Stevens’ campaign has emphasized her electability and record on economic issues. Both candidates have framed the primary as a choice between progressive policy goals and pragmatic governance in a competitive battleground state.