Democratic state Representative James Talarico holds a 2-point lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll released Tuesday. The survey from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center shows Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45%, with Libertarian candidate Ted Brown receiving 2% and 6% undecided. The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters from July 27–30, 2026, with a margin of error of ±2.83 percentage points.
Talarico’s support among independents stands at 63%, compared to Paxton’s 23%, marking a significant shift from 2024, when independents narrowly favored Republicans in presidential and Senate races. Among Black voters, Talarico leads 79% to 12%, while Latino voters favor him 59% to 40%. Democratic voters back Talarico at 97%, while Paxton’s support among Republicans is 85%, following his primary victory over incumbent Senator John Cornyn.
The poll reflects a competitive race in Texas, a state that voted for President Donald Trump by 14 points in 2024 but has seen recent surveys show Talarico with a slim advantage. The Texas Attorney General’s campaign dismissed the poll on Tuesday.
Race Overview: A Tight Contest in a Shifting State
Texas, historically a Republican stronghold, has become a top target for Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections, as they aim to flip control of the U.S. Senate. While Trump’s 2024 victory suggests a conservative-leaning electorate, recent polling indicates a narrowing gap between the two candidates. The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center’s findings align with other recent surveys showing Talarico leading within the margin of error.
Demographic Shifts: Independents and Minority Voters Favor Talarico
Talarico’s support among independents (63%) contrasts sharply with Paxton’s (23%), a reversal from 2024, when Trump won independents by a single point over Kamala Harris and Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred won independents by 5 points over Ted Cruz. Among Black voters, Talarico’s lead (79% to 12%) and his margin among Latino voters (59% to 40%) suggest growing Democratic strength in traditionally Republican-leaning demographics.
Republican Concerns: Paxton’s Primary Victory and Party Unity
Paxton’s primary win over Senator John Cornyn has raised questions about his ability to consolidate Republican support, with only 85% of GOP voters backing him in the poll. This follows his victory in a contentious primary, which some analysts suggest may have weakened his standing with the broader electorate.
Campaign Responses: Paxton Team Dismisses Poll Findings
The Texas Attorney General’s campaign responded to the poll by dismissing its findings, though no further details were provided. The race remains one of the closest in the country, with both campaigns likely to focus on mobilizing key demographics in the coming months.