Tennessee’s Republican primary for the state’s 5th Congressional District heads to the polls Thursday, August 6, with U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles—backed by former President Donald Trump—facing a competitive challenge from Charlie Hatcher, the former state agriculture commissioner endorsed by Governor Bill Lee.
Prediction markets as of Thursday morning showed Ogles with an 80% chance of victory on Kalshi (down from 85% a month prior) and 73% on Polymarket, though traders emphasize these figures reflect real-time sentiment rather than guaranteed outcomes. A single public poll by Tusk Strategies, surveying 400 likely Republican voters, placed Ogles at 37% and Hatcher at 33%, with 30% undecided.
Core Developments in the Race
Trump’s Renewed Endorsement of Ogles
President Donald Trump reiterated his support for Ogles on Truth Social Thursday morning, stating: "Congressman Andy Ogles is doing a fantastic job representing the incredible people of Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District! Andy is a Conservative Warrior who has strong support from his Community." Trump added: "Andy Ogles my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election. Election Day for the Republican Primary is TODAY." Ogles has also received backing from House GOP leadership, including Speaker Mike Johnson and Rep. Jim Jordan.
Lee’s Last-Minute Endorsement of Hatcher
Governor Bill Lee endorsed Hatcher on Tuesday, August 5, calling him a "proven leader" with a strong record in agriculture. Hatcher, who served as Tennessee’s state veterinarian under both Democratic and Republican administrations, has framed his campaign around his farming background and conservative credentials. He has insisted he remains a Trump supporter despite challenging a Trump-backed incumbent.
Key Context: Redistricting and Political Dynamics
Redrawn District Shifts Boundaries
Tennessee’s congressional map was altered ahead of the 2024 elections, removing a Democratic-held Memphis-based seat previously protected under the Voting Rights Act. The 5th District, previously anchored in Nashville, was redrawn to include more rural and western Tennessee areas, as well as parts of Memphis. Ogles’ district now leans heavily Republican, having voted for Trump by 18 points in 2024.
Outside Spending and PAC Activity
The race has drawn significant outside investment, with a pro-Hatcher PAC releasing internal polling showing Ogles at 37% and Hatcher at 33%, with 30% undecided in the final week. Ogles has faced scrutiny over past remarks on homosexuality and Muslims, while Hatcher has emphasized his bipartisan experience in state government.
Ogles’ Legislative Record
Ogles, a vocal conservative, has introduced the Assimilation Act to tighten legal visa systems and restrict non-citizens from receiving welfare. He also filed articles of impeachment against a federal judge who blocked the Trump administration’s termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS), a move upheld by the Supreme Court.
What’s at Stake
The primary serves as a test of Trump’s influence in deep-red Tennessee, where his endorsements have historically carried weight. Ogles’ allies argue his conservative record and Trump’s backing make him the stronger nominee, while Hatcher’s supporters highlight his executive experience and Lee’s endorsement as key differentiators. The winner will face no Democratic opposition in the general election, given Tennessee’s partisan lean.
Voters in the 5th District will cast ballots Thursday, August 6, with results expected later that evening.