President Donald Trump highlighted recent economic data during a Nevada rally, claiming record-high employment and declining costs for goods and services. However, polling and federal data present a more nuanced picture of the economy ahead of the November midterms.
Record employment figures reported
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that total nonfarm payroll employment reached a record 158.7 million jobs in June 2024, marking the highest level in U.S. history. This figure includes all non-agricultural workers, excluding farm labor. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, unchanged from May. The data reflects a continuation of job growth observed since the post-pandemic recovery began in 2021.
While the overall jobs count is at a record high, the pace of hiring has slowed compared to previous years. In the first half of 2024, employers added an average of 92,000 jobs per month, according to preliminary data. This figure is below the monthly average of 329,000 jobs recorded during President Joe Biden’s first three years in office, though it exceeds the 9,700-job monthly average from Trump’s second term in 2020.
Public perception diverges from economic indicators
A July 2024 AP-NORC poll found that only 32% of U.S. adults approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 69% characterized the economy as "poor." Among the concerns cited were rising costs for essentials such as groceries and gasoline. The same poll reported that 65% of respondents named the cost of living as a "major" source of stress.
Trump has repeatedly asserted that prices for rent, groceries, and other staples are declining under his administration. In a Wednesday speech at the Red Rock Casino Resort Spa in Las Vegas, he stated, “The cost of rent, groceries, and other staples is coming down very fast.” He also predicted further decreases in gasoline prices, attributing current trends to his economic policies and geopolitical actions, including his stance on Iran.
Stock market performance and mixed signals
The president also pointed to record stock market highs as evidence of economic strength. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have reached multiple record closes in recent months, though market performance is influenced by a range of factors beyond domestic policy, including global economic conditions and corporate earnings.
Economic context and historical comparisons
Economists note that job growth has slowed nationwide compared to the rapid recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve has maintained higher interest rates to combat inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 but has since eased to 3.3% as of July 2024. Despite this progress, consumer prices for food and shelter remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.
The Federal Reserve’s latest economic projections suggest continued but moderated growth, with inflation expected to approach the central bank’s 2% target by 2025. However, the lagged effects of past price increases continue to impact household budgets, particularly for lower- and middle-income families.
Ongoing debate over economic stewardship
The contrasting narratives—record employment versus public dissatisfaction—reflect differing priorities in economic assessment. While job numbers and market performance are objective indicators, public sentiment is shaped by immediate costs such as housing, food, and transportation. The November midterm elections will test whether voters prioritize headline economic data or personal financial experiences in their decision-making.