A new Emerson College poll released Thursday indicates a tightening race in Iowa’s Senate and gubernatorial contests, with Democrats within striking distance of Republican incumbents in both contests.
Senate Race: Turek Narrows Gap to 3 Points
State Rep. Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, trails Republican incumbent Ashley Hinson by 3 percentage points in the latest Emerson College poll. Turek holds 45% support to Hinson’s 48%, with 7% of respondents either undecided or backing a third candidate. The poll, conducted among 712 likely voters from August 2–4, carries a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.
This result follows a mixed set of polling data from June, when a New York Times/Siena University poll showed Hinson leading by 2 points, while a Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research survey had Turek ahead by 4 points. The Emerson poll also found that 44% of respondents view Hinson favorably, compared to 42% for Turek, though Hinson faces a higher unfavorable rating (40%) than Turek (27%).
Both candidates are vying to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), who endorsed Hinson in January. Former President Donald Trump has backed Hinson’s campaign since last year, while former President Barack Obama endorsed Turek late last month after Turek secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2 primary.
Governor’s Race: Sand Maintains 5-Point Lead Over Lahn
In the gubernatorial contest, Rob Sand, Iowa’s Democratic state auditor, holds a 5-point lead over Republican businessman Zach Lahn, with 48% to 43% respectively. The same Emerson College poll found 7% undecided and 2% backing other candidates. This aligns with recent independent polls showing Sand with a consistent advantage:
- A New York Times/Siena University poll (June 15–27) had Sand up 1 point (48% to 47%).
- A Fox News poll (July 12–15) showed Sand leading by 9 points (53% to 44%).
Sand is seeking to replace outgoing Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA), who has not taken a public stance in the race.
Historical Context and Competitiveness
Iowa has trended Republican in recent presidential elections, backing Donald Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024 after voting for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Democrats view the state as competitive this cycle, citing Trump’s declining approval ratings and the impact of his tariff policies on farmers as potential factors in their favor. The Emerson College poll surveyed 712 likely voters with a margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points.
Campaigns for Turek, Hinson, Sand, and Lahn did not immediately respond to requests for comment.