US President Donald Trump on Thursday reiterated his belief that the conflict involving Iran is nearing resolution, stating that Tehran cannot sustain the fighting much longer. Speaking from the White House, Trump also expressed optimism about ongoing negotiations related to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route, while warning that Iran must not acquire a nuclear weapon.
Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused Trump of engaging in "theater diplomacy," alleging that Washington’s mixed signals—alternating between threats of strikes and calls for talks—undermine diplomatic efforts. Iranian officials have denied any active negotiations with the US, despite Trump’s claims of progress.
Regional tensions escalate as shipping traffic collapses
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted to just two vessels on Wednesday, down from eight the previous day and a pre-war average of 130–140 daily transits, according to vessel-tracking data from Kpler. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint also dropped sharply to a single dry bulk carrier, from 20 the prior day.
Iran intensifies threats against Gulf states
In a series of high-level diplomatic contacts, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi warned Gulf allies—including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, and Pakistan—that any US attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure would trigger retaliatory strikes on Gulf oil fields, power plants, water infrastructure, and other strategic assets. The warning was delivered through intermediaries after Trump threatened on July 28 to strike Iran’s energy network, according to four regional officials and diplomats who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Araqchi urged Gulf states to use their influence with Trump to prevent further military action, emphasizing that a diplomatic solution was the only way to avoid broader regional destruction. One Gulf source described Iran’s message as "unequivocal": retaliation would be swift and severe if US strikes proceeded.
US and Iran trade conflicting accounts of negotiations
Trump claimed that outlines of a deal with Iran had already been settled, though Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected this assertion. The president framed the conflict as part of a broader effort to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, stating that such an outcome would have catastrophic global consequences.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia reported intelligence indicating that Iran-backed Iraqi militias and Houthi forces in Yemen were planning "multiple coordinated attacks" on Gulf energy infrastructure in the near future. The warning followed Houthi claims of responsibility for attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Gulf of Aden.
Analysts: Trump faces tough choices as war drags on
With the conflict now in its sixth month, analysts say Trump is caught between two unpalatable options: accepting an interim deal that would grant Iran oversight of the Strait of Hormuz—a concession the US had previously vowed to prevent—or risking further escalation through airstrikes, which could backfire politically ahead of the US midterm elections. A third option, maintaining the current blockade and periodic retaliation, offers no clear exit strategy.
A US official, speaking anonymously, stated that any temporary shipping routes through the Strait would proceed "without any impediments," though no party would have exclusive control.
Background: The conflict’s origins and stakes
The hostilities began in late February when the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, escalating a long-standing standoff over Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence. The Trump administration has framed its actions as necessary to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, while Iran has framed US strikes as illegal aggression.
Negotiations mediated by Oman have reportedly explored ways to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but no formal agreement has been confirmed. Regional officials warn that even a deal may not restore pre-war shipping levels, given the deep mistrust and ongoing threats.
Key developments at a glance
- Trump claims negotiations are progressing, but Iran denies talks are underway.
- Shipping traffic through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb has collapsed, raising concerns about global oil supplies.
- Iran warns Gulf states of retaliatory strikes on energy and infrastructure if the US attacks Iran.
- Saudi Arabia reports imminent threats from Iran-backed militias, including Houthi attacks on oil tankers.
- Analysts say Trump has no clear exit strategy, with all options carrying significant risks.