A new poll shows Democratic candidate James Talarico leading Republican incumbent Ken Paxton by four percentage points in the Texas U.S. Senate race, according to the latest Texas Pulse survey conducted by ReconMR for the Texas A&M Bush School. The survey of 619 likely Texas voters, taken from July 27 to July 30, found Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 43%, a shift from a June poll where the two were tied at 46% each.
The 4.7-point margin of error means the race remains within statistical striking distance, though the movement is notable. Talarico’s lead grew by one point since June, while Paxton’s support declined by three points, resulting in a four-point swing in Talarico’s favor. Among independent voters, Talarico holds a 23-point advantage (53%-30%), up from a 14-point lead (50%-36%) in the previous survey.
Demographic Breakdown
Talarico leads among women (53%-40%), voters under 65, and younger voters aged 18-34 (66%-23%). Paxton maintains strong support among Republicans (85%-10%) and voters 65 and older (55%-38%). Regionally, Talarico holds wide leads in Austin and Dallas/Fort Worth, while Paxton leads in rural areas. The Houston and San Antonio regions remain closely divided.
Favorability Ratings
Talarico’s favorability improved to 46% favorable, 39% unfavorable, up from 39%-34% in June. Paxton’s favorability declined to 40% favorable, 52% unfavorable, compared to 34%-52% previously.
Both campaigns were contacted for comment but did not immediately respond.
Polling Context
This is the fourth consecutive poll in the past two weeks showing Talarico leading within the margin of error. The Texas Pulse series has tracked the race since June, with ReconMR noting the shift among independent voters as a key factor in the tightening contest.
Key Issues
The poll also asked voters which candidate they believed would handle major issues better. Results were not fully detailed in the released data, but the survey included comparisons on unspecified topics.
The race remains one of the most closely watched U.S. Senate contests in the 2026 election cycle.