The Old Farmer’s Almanac and Farmers’ Almanac have both released their 2026–2027 winter forecasts, predicting a season defined by sharp regional contrasts, an active southern storm track, and the influence of a strengthening Super El Niño.
Both publications emphasize that ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are surging, signaling a major disruption to weather patterns across the United States. Forecasters warn that this could lead to wetter-than-normal conditions in the South and Southeast, while the North may experience volatile temperatures, sudden cold snaps, and fast-moving storms.
Key Forecast Highlights
The Old Farmer’s Almanac and Farmers’ Almanac agree on several core predictions for the upcoming winter:
- Southern Storm Track: An active storm pattern is expected to bring above-normal precipitation from Southern California through Texas, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast. Repeated storms could lead to muddy fields, heavy rain, and mixed precipitation events, including sleet, freezing rain, or wet snow.
- Northern Volatility: The West, northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes may see near-normal temperatures overall, but with frequent cold snaps, sudden thaws, and brief bursts of bitter air. Fast-moving Alberta clippers and lake-effect snow could bring unpredictable conditions.
- Northeast Mixed Bag: Inland areas of the Northeast may face several rounds of heavy, wet snow, while coastal communities could see more rain or mixed precipitation due to shifting storm tracks. Small temperature shifts could flip forecasts from slush to significant winter storms.
Regional Breakdown
Southern U.S. and Gulf Coast
Both almanacs predict a cold, stormy winter for Mississippi and the Gulf Coast, with above-normal precipitation and frequent storm systems. The Farmers’ Almanac specifically notes that the region could see "snow, sleet, and surprises" as storm tracks wobble.
Western U.S.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac highlights the Southwest and Southern California as areas likely to experience wetter-than-normal conditions, with repeated storms and potential for mudslides or flooding in vulnerable regions.
Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Upper Midwest
Forecasters warn of high variability, with near-normal temperatures punctuated by sudden cold snaps and brief thaws. The Farmers’ Almanac describes conditions as "quick-moving storms, snow squalls, and periods of bitter cold."
Northeast
The Old Farmer’s Almanac notes that inland areas may face heavy, wet snow, while coastal zones could see more rain or mixed precipitation. The Farmers’ Almanac adds that the region may struggle with a "tricky mix of rain, sleet, ice, and heavy, wet snow."
Scientific Context: The Role of El Niño
Both publications cite the ongoing development of a Super El Niño as a primary driver of the forecasted weather patterns. El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, is known to disrupt the jet stream, leading to:
- Stronger southern storm tracks, which can bring increased rainfall and storminess to the southern U.S.
- Shifts in temperature gradients, creating unpredictable cold snaps and thaws in northern regions.
- Enhanced moisture transport, increasing the likelihood of heavy precipitation events, including snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
Meteorologists note that while El Niño is officially underway, its intensity and exact impacts remain subject to real-time atmospheric conditions. Crystal Egger, an Emmy Award-winning meteorologist and president of Monarch Weather Consulting, stated that it is still too early to determine the full scope of its influence on the upcoming winter.
Comparing the Two Forecasts
While both almanacs align on broad trends, there are subtle differences in emphasis:
- The Old Farmer’s Almanac provides detailed regional breakdowns, including specific storm track predictions and temperature anomalies.
- The Farmers’ Almanac focuses more on Mississippi and the Gulf Coast, highlighting "snow, sleet, and surprises" as defining features of the winter.
Both publications, however, stress that small shifts in storm tracks or temperature could drastically alter local conditions, making long-range forecasts inherently uncertain.
What This Means for Residents
Forecasters recommend that residents across the U.S. prepare for a highly variable winter, with:
- Increased storm readiness in the South and Southeast, where repeated precipitation events could lead to flooding or travel disruptions.
- Cold weather preparations in the North and Northeast, where sudden temperature drops and heavy snowfall could pose challenges.
- Monitoring updates from the National Weather Service and local meteorologists, as real-time conditions may shift forecasts.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expected to release its official winter outlook in late October 2026, which may provide additional clarity on the season’s expected conditions.