Forecasters from the Farmers’ Almanac and AccuWeather have released their 2026-27 winter outlooks, projecting a season marked by regional extremes driven by a strengthening El Niño weather pattern. The forecasts, issued independently, align on key trends: wetter-than-average conditions in the South and Southwest, variable snowfall in the Northeast, and warmer-than-normal temperatures in the northern Plains and upper Midwest.
Key Developments:
- The Farmers’ Almanac warns of an active storm corridor stretching from Southern California through Texas, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast, with frequent storms and potential for sleet, freezing rain, or heavy wet snow where cold air intersects moisture.
- AccuWeather highlights El Niño’s influence on fall and winter patterns, forecasting increased rainfall in the Southwest and Southeast, drier conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes, and warmer-than-average temperatures in the northern Plains and Southeast coast.
Regional Breakdown:
South and Southwest:
Both forecasts emphasize El Niño’s impact on the southern U.S., with the Farmers’ Almanac predicting frequent storm systems, muddy conditions, and occasional cold air intrusions across Texas, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast. AccuWeather maps show wetter-than-normal conditions from the Southwest (California, Nevada, Arizona) through the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast, including areas like Houston, Mobile, and Atlanta. The Old Farmer’s Almanac specifically notes that California may experience a wetter-than-usual winter due to El Niño’s influence on the jet stream.
Northeast:
The Farmers’ Almanac describes the Northeast’s winter as “one of the season’s most complicated patterns,” with coastal areas more likely to see rain or mixed precipitation, while inland regions could face heavy, wet snow, particularly in January and February. AccuWeather does not provide a detailed Northeast forecast but aligns with the Almanac’s caution about variable precipitation types depending on storm tracks.
Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes:
The Farmers’ Almanac expects these regions to average close to normal for temperatures but warns of short-lived wintry episodes, including quick snow events, sudden cold snaps, and windy conditions. AccuWeather projects warmer-than-average conditions in the northern Plains and upper Midwest, with a drier pattern extending from the Great Lakes into the Northeast.
Pacific Northwest:
Both forecasts suggest a more variable winter for the Pacific Northwest, with less reliable snowfall than in some years. The Farmers’ Almanac notes that snow conditions may be less dependable, while AccuWeather highlights drier-than-normal conditions in the region.
Scientific Context:
The forecasts attribute their predictions to El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average waters in the tropical Pacific, which shifts the jet stream and alters storm tracks across North America. The Old Farmer’s Almanac also references solar cycle 25, noting that elevated sunspot activity could contribute to warmer temperatures during the winter months. AccuWeather underscores that strong El Niño events can lead to changes in precipitation patterns, drought prospects, and even early-season snowfall, with implications for flooding, tropical activity, and tornado risks.
Timing and Transition:
The autumnal equinox marks the start of fall on September 22, 2026, followed by the winter solstice on December 21, 2026. The Farmers’ Almanac and AccuWeather both note that El Niño’s influence will be most pronounced during the heart of the winter season, with effects beginning to manifest in fall weather patterns.
Uncertainty and Variability:
Both forecasts caution that small changes in storm tracks or temperatures could significantly alter outcomes, particularly in the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, where precipitation types (rain, ice, or snow) may hinge on marginal shifts in conditions. The Farmers’ Almanac emphasizes that individual storm systems could bring different types of precipitation depending on local temperature profiles.