Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) say a tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic could develop into Cristobal, the third named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, by midweek. A second disturbance northeast of Bermuda is also being monitored but poses a low risk of development.
Key developments as of Aug. 12:
- The high-risk disturbance in the Atlantic has a 70% chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm within the next seven days, according to the NHC. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development by midweek.
- The system is moving westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic and could approach the northern Lesser Antilles by late Sunday or early Monday.
- A separate disturbance northeast of Bermuda is producing showers and thunderstorms but is moving eastward at about 20 mph, away from the U.S.
Uncertainty remains over potential U.S. impacts
Meteorologists caution that the storm’s future path and intensity are still unclear. Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist with WPLG-TV in Miami, noted that early model runs are split on whether the system will track into the Caribbean or curve north of the islands into the open Atlantic. The majority of models currently favor a weaker southern track, which would limit its chances of strengthening due to high wind shear in the Caribbean.
AccuWeather meteorologist Nick Arman told Newsweek that if the system organizes, it could briefly reach tropical storm strength before encountering dry air and shear near the Lesser Antilles. “The most likely outcome remains a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm,” Arman said. “Hurricane intensity is possible but unlikely at this stage.”
National Weather Service (NWS) in Puerto Rico has stated it is too early to determine impacts for the U.S. Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico, emphasizing that the system is still in its early stages.
Pacific activity also on the rise
While the Atlantic has seen slower-than-average activity this season, the Pacific basin is more active. The NHC is monitoring two disturbances in the Pacific, including one southeast of Hawaii with the highest odds of development among the four systems currently being tracked across both basins.
Background: A season of contrasts
The Atlantic hurricane season typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October, but this year’s activity has been below average so far. Only two named storms—Arthur and Bertha—had formed by early August, compared to five by the same time last year. Forecasters attribute the slow start to a strengthening El Niño pattern, which increases wind shear and suppresses tropical development in the Atlantic. In contrast, El Niño often enhances activity in the Pacific, where seven named storms have already formed this year, including one major hurricane.