Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) holds a 10-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman in the latest Siena University poll of likely New York voters, released Wednesday. The survey, conducted Aug. 3–6 among 811 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points, found Hochul at 49% and Blakeman at 39%, a shift from June when Hochul led 52-32% among registered voters.
Hochul’s lead has narrowed since June, though she maintains a double-digit advantage in the gubernatorial race with under three months until Election Day. The poll also revealed mixed voter sentiment on key issues, with Hochul favored on affordability and housing but facing closer competition on public safety and immigration.
Hochul’s strengths and regional divides
Likely voters favored Hochul’s policies on affordability (48-41%) and increasing affordable housing (51-35%), according to the Siena poll. Her lead was particularly pronounced in New York City, where she led Blakeman by 45 points. However, Blakeman held an 8-point advantage in downstate suburbs (49-41%), while the race remained neck and neck upstate.
The poll found Hochul leading Blakeman among Democrats 80-8, while Blakeman led among Republicans 84-9. Independent voters narrowly favored Blakeman by 5 points.
Blakeman’s counter-narrative and campaign claims
Blakeman, the Nassau County executive and Trump-backed candidate, asserted that recent polls show the race is "virtually tied" and criticized Hochul’s tenure. In a statement, he claimed Hochul is "desperate for people to believe that she is way ahead" despite economic concerns, including high taxes, soaring electric bills, and increased crime.
Hochul’s campaign has not publicly responded to the latest poll results. The Siena poll’s findings follow Hochul’s recent criticism of her GOP rivals, suggesting she would have faced a tougher opponent than Blakeman in a hypothetical matchup.
Voter sentiment on policy priorities
The poll highlighted voter priorities, with Hochul holding narrow advantages on public safety (47-44%) and immigration (45-44%). Siena pollster Steven Greenberg noted that while Hochul leads on multiple issues, her margins are slim in several categories, including energy and safety. Greenberg added that Hochul’s 16-point advantage on affordable housing stands out as a significant strength in the race.
The latest poll reflects a competitive landscape as both candidates seek to solidify support ahead of November’s election.