Progressive Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan defeated Democratic Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota’s U.S. Senate Democratic primary on Tuesday, securing the nomination after a closely watched race. The victory marks another setback for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who had backed Craig’s candidacy.
In Wisconsin, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley narrowly defeated Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong in the gubernatorial primary, winning by less than half a percentage point. The result followed a similarly tight contest in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens by just 1 percentage point in the Senate primary.
Across multiple states, Democratic voters delivered a consistent message: they are prioritizing change over ideological alignment, with incumbents and establishment-backed candidates facing challenges from insurgent challengers. In Connecticut, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin ousted 14-term Rep. John Larson in a primary focused on generational turnover.
Primary Results Highlight Voter Demand for Change
The outcomes in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Connecticut reflect a broader trend in Democratic primaries this cycle, where voters are increasingly rejecting long-serving incumbents in favor of challengers positioning themselves as agents of renewal. Flanagan’s win over Craig, a three-term congresswoman, underscores the party’s internal divisions over leadership and direction ahead of the 2026 midterms.
In Wisconsin, Crowley’s victory over Hong—a Democratic Socialist of America member backed by national progressives like Rep. Ilhan Omar—signaled that while progressive candidates remain competitive, establishment-backed Democrats can still prevail in close races. Crowley’s campaign emphasized his experience as a county executive and alignment with retiring Gov. Tony Evers, who did not seek a third term.
Michigan’s Senate primary saw El-Sayed, a former state health director, defeat Stevens by a razor-thin margin, continuing a pattern of unexpected outcomes in high-profile races. The results in both states were so close that shifts of fewer than 8,000 votes in Michigan and 1,600 votes in Wisconsin could have reversed the outcomes.
Connecticut Incumbent Falls in Generational Challenge
Bronin’s defeat of Larson in Connecticut’s 1st Congressional District primary marked another high-profile rejection of a long-serving Democrat. Bronin, a former mayor, framed his campaign around generational change, arguing that Larson’s 28-year tenure no longer reflected the priorities of the district’s voters. Bronin’s victory speech echoed a theme heard across multiple races: that Democratic voters are seeking fresh leadership and a break from the past.
Polling Missteps Raise Questions About Forecasting Accuracy
The primary results have also reignited debates about the reliability of polling in key Midwestern states. In Wisconsin, pre-election polls had shown Hong leading Crowley by margins as wide as 22 points, only for Crowley to prevail by 0.4 points. Similarly, El-Sayed’s lead in Michigan’s Senate primary had ballooned to double digits in polling averages before he won by just 1 point.
Pollster Frank Luntz called for a “complete shutdown of primary polling in the Midwestern United States” following the Wisconsin results, citing repeated inaccuracies in forecasting. Critics argue that polling firms may be overestimating enthusiasm for progressive candidates, while others suggest systemic flaws in survey methodology. The polling discrepancies have prompted scrutiny of how media outlets use polls to shape narratives ahead of elections.
What’s Next for Democrats?
The primary results leave Democrats facing a dual challenge: harnessing the energy behind insurgent candidates while maintaining party unity ahead of the general election. Flanagan’s victory in Minnesota positions her as a leading progressive voice in the Senate, while Crowley’s win in Wisconsin sets up a competitive gubernatorial race in a critical swing state.
Analysts note that the outcomes do not present a clear ideological mandate but instead reflect a broader appetite for turnover within the party. Whether these changes will translate into electoral success against Republicans in November remains an open question, as does the long-term impact on Democratic leadership structures, including the potential for a shift away from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer if the party’s left flank continues to gain momentum.