Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has surpassed California Governor Gavin Newsom in early prediction-market odds for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, according to data from Polymarket and Kalshi as of Wednesday.
Ocasio-Cortez now holds an 18% chance of winning the nomination on Polymarket, narrowly ahead of Newsom at 17%, while Senator Jon Ossoff ranks third at 16%. On Kalshi, Newsom remains the frontrunner, though Ocasio-Cortez is in second place. These figures reflect trader sentiment and do not constitute formal polling or indicate official campaign announcements.
Neither Ocasio-Cortez nor Newsom has declared a 2028 presidential bid, though both have been frequently discussed as potential contenders. Ocasio-Cortez has emphasized her focus on the 2024 midterms, stating in a recent interview that her priority is ensuring Democrats maintain their majority in Congress. Newsom, meanwhile, has not publicly addressed his 2028 intentions but has been positioning himself as a leading establishment figure within the party.
Prediction markets operate differently from traditional polls, as they reflect speculative wagering on future outcomes rather than direct voter preferences. Traders’ movements can be influenced by recent news events, perceived candidate viability, and speculation about who may ultimately enter the race. The shift in odds comes amid increased attention on Ocasio-Cortez following her announcement that she is freezing her eggs, a decision she has documented on social media.
Conventional political polls, however, continue to place Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic field, with Newsom in second and Ocasio-Cortez trailing in fourth. The discrepancy between prediction markets and polling underscores the early and uncertain nature of the 2028 race, with more than two years remaining until the election.
The Democratic Party remains divided between progressive and establishment factions, with Ocasio-Cortez representing the progressive wing and Newsom embodying the establishment perspective. If either were to run, their campaigns would likely reflect these broader ideological divides within the party.