A new poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by The Los Angeles Times, shows Democrat Xavier Becerra holding a 18-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton in the race for California governor. The survey, conducted in late May, indicates 55% of likely voters support Becerra, while 37% back Hilton, with 8% undecided.
The two candidates emerged from a contentious jungle primary in June and will face off in the November 3 general election to replace term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom. The poll reflects California’s strong Democratic lean, where 88% of Democrats support Becerra and 91% of Republicans back Hilton. Among no-party-preference voters, Becerra leads 58% to 30%.
Becerra’s Campaign Highlights
Becerra, a former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary and California Attorney General, has emphasized lowering the cost of living and opposing policies tied to former President Donald Trump, who has endorsed Hilton. A spokesperson for Becerra stated the poll confirms voter support for his agenda, calling Hilton’s policies “hateful and disastrous.”
Hilton’s Campaign Focus
Hilton, a conservative commentator and former adviser to UK Prime Minister David Cameron, has positioned himself as an alternative to California’s Democratic leadership. His campaign has not yet publicly responded to the poll results.
Historical Context
California, a state President Joe Biden won by 29 points in 2020, has seen a narrowing margin in recent elections. Kamala Harris carried the state by 20 points in 2024, down from Biden’s 2020 margin. Political analysts note that Hilton would need significant crossover support to make the race competitive.
Demographic Breakdown
The poll shows Becerra leading across age, gender, and racial groups, with particularly strong support among women, younger voters, and non-white demographics. Hilton’s support remains concentrated among Republican-leaning voters.
The general election will determine the next leader of the nation’s most populous state, which has been a key opponent of Trump administration policies under Newsom’s tenure.