Famed investor Steve Eisman has raised concerns that the artificial intelligence boom is dangerously reliant on the fortunes of just two companies: OpenAI and Anthropic. Eisman, whose contrarian bets against the housing market were chronicled in The Big Short, argues that the two AI startups account for roughly 70% of AI-related revenue at major tech firms including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet’s Google, and Oracle. He also estimates they contribute 25% to 35% of cloud revenue for these companies.
Eisman’s warning comes as Anthropic barrels toward a potential IPO that could surpass this summer’s historic SpaceX offering in valuation and funds raised. Reports suggest a $2 trillion valuation for Anthropic, positioning it among the world’s most valuable companies. However, Eisman cautions that the broader AI ecosystem could face severe disruption if either company were to falter.
The investor’s primary concern is the rise of cheaper Chinese open-source AI models, which he warns could trigger a price war that destabilizes the market. “The ‘Achilles’ heel’ of this whole story ... is if something bad happens to Anthropic and OpenAI,” Eisman told CNBC. “And then we have a problem.”
Market dependence on two firms
Eisman’s critique underscores the concentration risk in the AI sector, where a handful of companies dominate revenue streams for industry giants. His remarks echo earlier warnings from independent researcher Ed Zitron, who compared OpenAI’s potential collapse to the Lehman Brothers crisis, suggesting it could pose a systemic risk to the broader economy.
Broader skepticism in the AI trade
Eisman is not alone in questioning the sustainability of the AI investment boom. Another investor, Michael Burry—also featured in The Big Short—has adopted a bearish stance, arguing that much of the current and future demand for AI is driven by circular financing arrangements rather than genuine end-user adoption. Burry has placed bearish bets against Nvidia and the broader semiconductor sector, signaling deep skepticism about the long-term viability of AI-driven growth.
Potential triggers for disruption
Analysts highlight several factors that could destabilize OpenAI and Anthropic, including:
- Regulatory scrutiny: Both companies face increasing regulatory challenges, particularly around data privacy and AI safety.
- Competitive pressure: The emergence of low-cost Chinese AI models could erode their market dominance, particularly in price-sensitive segments.
- Financial sustainability: Despite high valuations, neither company has demonstrated consistent profitability, raising questions about their long-term business models.