A Fox News poll released this week shows Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers holding a 51% to 47% lead over Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan’s competitive U.S. Senate race. The survey, conducted Aug. 6-10 among registered Michigan voters, falls within the poll’s margin of sampling error.
The poll highlights Republican unity, with 96% of Republicans backing Rogers, including 99% of MAGA-aligned Republicans and 89% of non-MAGA Republicans. Among Democrats, El-Sayed’s support stands at 91%, but drops to 69% among non-DSA Democrats and independents, according to the poll.
Meanwhile, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson holds a 52% to 47% advantage over Republican Rep. John James, with 81% support from non-DSA Democrats and independents.
El-Sayed’s primary victory and Stevens’ post-primary shift
El-Sayed narrowly won the Democratic primary last month, defeating moderate Rep. Haley Stevens by 1 percentage point in a contentious contest. Stevens, who had been criticized during the primary for her Michigan accent and campaign style, has since gained attention for her endorsements of other Democrats, including Wisconsin gubernatorial nominee David Crowley.
In a CNN interview, Stevens contrasted Crowley with his Republican opponent, Rep. Tom Tiffany, stating: “He’s deeply conservative, and his big priority is wolves. Crowley, on the other hand, is an executive operator... This is cool stuff. It’s a good time to be a Democrat.” Her remarks have drawn mixed reactions, with some praising her enthusiasm and others questioning its strategic value.
Democratic divisions and Republican strategy
The Fox News poll underscores El-Sayed’s struggles to unify the Democratic base, particularly among black voters, women, and suburban voters, where he trails compared to Kamala Harris’ 2024 presidential performance in Michigan. Political commentator Adolph Mongo, who is Black, stated in an interview with the Washington Examiner that El-Sayed’s support among Black voters was limited, saying: “He’s not going to get our support in November.”
Republicans, including Rogers, have seized on these divisions, framing the race as a referendum on El-Sayed’s progressive policies and past controversial statements. Rogers’ campaign has emphasized party unity among Republicans as a key advantage heading into the general election.
Key takeaways
- Rogers leads El-Sayed 51% to 47% in the latest Fox News poll, within the margin of error.
- El-Sayed’s support among non-DSA Democrats and independents is 69%, compared to 91% overall Democratic support.
- Stevens’ post-primary endorsements have renewed scrutiny of Democratic unity in Michigan.