Alphabet’s autonomous ride-hailing unit Waymo has secured a 15% to 19% share of gross ride-hailing spending in its most mature markets, according to third-party data analyzed by Yipit, a market research firm. The figures, which reflect dollars spent on rides rather than trip volume, indicate Waymo’s expanding presence in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix as it broadens its operational zones.
Waymo’s share of spending in June 2024 was estimated at 15% in San Francisco, 15% in Los Angeles, and 16% in Phoenix, according to Yipit’s analysis of email receipts from a sample of 1.5 million active U.S. consumer accounts. In January 2024, the shares were slightly higher at 16% in San Francisco, 17% in Los Angeles, and 19% in Phoenix. The data, shared by Uber CFO Balaji Krishnamurthy on social media platform X, tracks trips that begin and end within Waymo’s operating zones.
Waymo’s expansion into new areas may temporarily reduce its reported share in those regions, as demand builds gradually. For example, in May 2024, Waymo announced plans to expand its Bay Area footprint by 60 square miles, a move that could dilute its share in newly covered areas where adoption is still developing.
Impact on Human Drivers Remains Unclear
Economist Gad Allon, a professor at the Wharton School who studies the gig economy, suggested that Waymo’s growth could affect human drivers, but not necessarily through immediate job losses. Instead, he noted that the earliest signs might appear in lower driver utilization rates, longer wait times between rides, fewer trips per hour, and increased unpaid repositioning—where drivers travel without passengers to reach high-demand areas.
Utilization refers to the percentage of a driver’s online time spent on paid trips. Allon emphasized that driver supply is flexible, meaning platforms like Uber and Lyft may adjust fleet sizes in response to demand shifts rather than seeing sudden, large-scale displacement of drivers.
Methodology and Limitations
Yipit’s estimates are based on a sample of consumer email receipts and do not account for variations in pricing across platforms. Waymo’s actual share of trips could differ depending on its pricing relative to competitors like Uber and Lyft. The firm also cautioned that its methodology may understate Waymo’s share in areas where its service is less established, as expansion can temporarily reduce its reported percentage in those zones.
Uber and Lyft have not publicly commented on the long-term implications of Waymo’s growth, though Uber’s CFO referenced the data as part of a broader discussion about competitive positioning.