Republican primaries in Florida and Wyoming on Tuesday will test the influence of former President Donald Trump’s endorsements in gubernatorial races, following recent setbacks in similar contests.
Trump-backed candidates lose four of 17 GOP gubernatorial primaries this year. Among the 17 candidates Trump endorsed in open Republican gubernatorial primaries in 2024, 10 won while four lost, according to a Politico analysis. The defeats included U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra of Iowa, Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette of South Carolina, Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones of Georgia, and MyPillow founder Mike Lindell in Minnesota. Political analysts note that gubernatorial races differ from congressional contests, as voters often prioritize state-level leadership over national partisan alignment.
Florida’s crowded primary features anti-establishment challenger James Fishback. The Aug. 18 Florida Republican primary includes four candidates vying to succeed Governor Ron DeSantis: U.S. Representative Byron Donalds, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner, and political newcomer James Fishback. Fishback, a 31-year-old investment manager and Florida native, has gained attention as an “anti-establishment” candidate despite his lack of prior political experience. He previously worked at Greenlight Capital and founded Azoria Partners, an investment firm, as well as Incubate Debate, a nonprofit high school debate league. Fishback has also been associated with Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency initiative, though Musk’s camp has disputed his role. His campaign has drawn controversy, including allegations he spread debunked claims about opponents.
Gubernatorial races have emerged as a notable exception to Trump’s otherwise dominant primary endorsement record. While Trump has endorsed 312 candidates across congressional, state legislative, and state executive races in the 2024 cycle—with a 97% success rate in congressional primaries—his gubernatorial endorsement record shows a lower success rate. Political scientists attribute this to voters viewing governors as state executives rather than national partisan figures. “Voters tend to see them less as foot soldiers in a national partisan fight and more as executives responsible for things happening in their own state,” said Justin Vaughn, a professor of political science at Coastal Carolina University.
The Wyoming Republican primary also features a competitive gubernatorial race, with candidates including Secretary of State Chuck Gray and former state representative Rex Rammell. The outcomes in both states could signal whether Trump’s recent gubernatorial losses were isolated setbacks or part of a broader trend in his endorsement power within the GOP.