Russian military forces have constructed at least 10 secret drone launch sites along borders with Belarus and Ukraine, according to satellite imagery analyzed by intelligence firm DroneSec. The sites include 20 new launch rails designed to deploy long-range attack drones, including the Geran-2 and upgraded Geran-4/5 models, which analysts say could reach targets in multiple NATO member states.
The developments follow warnings from alliance officials that Moscow may conduct limited drone attacks on NATO soil as early as this fall, though Russia has repeatedly denied such intentions. The new infrastructure appears to expand Russia’s capacity to conduct strikes beyond Ukraine, with military experts noting that the United Kingdom, Italy, and parts of France fall within potential strike range of the drones.
Military assessments and official responses
Military analysts cited in Western media reports suggest that while Russia possesses the technical capability to launch drones into NATO territory, the Kremlin is likely using these deployments as a form of strategic signaling—part of a broader hybrid warfare approach that includes cyberattacks, sabotage of undersea cables, and espionage. Analysts warn that Moscow’s actions may aim to test alliance cohesion and deter further Western support for Ukraine, rather than provoke a direct military confrontation.
NATO’s collective defense doctrine, outlined in Article 5, remains a deterrent cited by experts as a key factor limiting Russian escalation. The alliance has not publicly confirmed any immediate threat but has emphasized monitoring Russian military movements near member-state borders. A spokesperson for NATO declined to comment on the specific findings but reiterated the alliance’s commitment to collective defense and deterrence.
Drone capabilities and production surge
The new launch sites complement Russia’s expanding domestic drone production, with Ukrainian military intelligence reporting that Russian industry is now manufacturing approximately 3,000 upgraded Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones per month. These models, based on Iranian Shahed designs but domestically produced, are capable of longer ranges and higher payloads than earlier variants. The primary manufacturing hub is located in Yelabuga, Tatarstan, where a dedicated drone production facility has been established.
Russian officials have dismissed reports of plans to attack NATO territory as "nonsense", stating that such claims are part of a disinformation campaign. The Russian Defense Ministry has not responded to multiple requests for comment on the satellite findings. Meanwhile, Ukrainian intelligence sources assert that the new launch sites have already been used to conduct strikes on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, in recent weeks.
Geographic scope and potential targets
The 10 identified sites are situated in remote rural areas, military bases, and airports near Russia’s western borders. Analysts note that the placement allows for both coverage of Ukrainian territory and the ability to reach deep into NATO member states, depending on drone configuration and payload. The Geran-2, for example, has a reported range of up to 2,500 kilometers, while newer models are expected to extend this capability further.
Western military observers caution that while the infrastructure suggests increased offensive potential, Russia’s current drone inventory and logistical constraints may limit the scale of any immediate attack. The deployment of launch rails, however, indicates a long-term strategic investment in expanding strike capabilities beyond the Ukrainian conflict zone.
Hybrid warfare and alliance preparedness
The developments underscore Russia’s ongoing use of hybrid warfare tactics, blending conventional military assets with unconventional methods to achieve strategic objectives. In addition to drone deployments, reports highlight increased Russian activity in cyber operations targeting critical infrastructure in Europe, as well as suspected sabotage of undersea communication cables in the Baltic and North Seas.
NATO has not announced specific countermeasures but has reinforced intelligence-sharing among member states and conducted joint military exercises focused on counter-drone defense. Analysts suggest that the alliance is prioritizing deterrence through visibility, with increased reconnaissance flights and satellite monitoring of Russian military movements along NATO’s eastern flank.