Alaska voters cast ballots Tuesday in a nonpartisan primary to determine the top four candidates who will advance to November’s Senate election, where ranked-choice voting will decide the winner. Republican Senator Dan Sullivan and Democratic former Representative Mary Peltola emerged as the clear frontrunners in a crowded 16-candidate field, with both widely expected to secure spots in the general election.
The primary follows Alaska’s unique electoral system, which combines a top-four primary with ranked-choice voting for the general election. All candidates, regardless of party affiliation, compete on a single ballot, and the four highest vote-getters move forward. In November, voters will rank the candidates by preference, with instant runoffs triggered if no candidate secures a majority initially.
A Siena University poll conducted in early July showed Sullivan leading Peltola 47% to 45%, reflecting the tight race. National groups have poured millions into the state, with the Senate Leadership Fund announcing an additional $2 million investment against Peltola last week, bringing its total spending in the race to $17 million. Notably, outside groups have also spent over $2 million promoting lesser-known candidates to influence which two additional contenders join Sullivan and Peltola in the top four.
Key dynamics of the race
The contest carries significant national implications, as control of the Senate may hinge on the outcome. Alaska, historically a Republican-leaning state, backed President Donald Trump by 13 points in 2024, but Democrats see an opportunity amid concerns over inflation and cost-of-living issues. Peltola, who represented Alaska’s at-large congressional district from 2022 to 2025, outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris in the state during the 2024 election.
Sullivan, who has served in the Senate since 2015, faces scrutiny over rising costs, with critics highlighting increases in gas, groceries, and healthcare prices. A Peltola campaign spokesperson stated Monday that she would “stand up to anyone to fix the rigged system in D.C., lower costs and put Alaska first,” adding that over 10,000 Alaskans had signed up to volunteer for her campaign.
Campaign spending and strategic maneuvers
Republicans have escalated their investment in response to polling showing a close race. The Senate Leadership Fund’s $17 million expenditure against Peltola underscores the high stakes, while Democrats argue that Sullivan’s approval ratings have declined among Alaskans. Meanwhile, outside groups have spent strategically on lesser-known candidates, aiming to shape the November field by influencing which two additional candidates secure spots in the top four.
The primary results will determine not only which candidates advance but also how the ranked-choice voting dynamics unfold in November. Analysts note that the outcome could reveal the relative strength of Sullivan and Peltola ahead of the general election, where ranked-choice voting may play a decisive role in determining the ultimate winner.