Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in Florida’s primary election, with prediction markets assigning him a 99% chance of victory ahead of Tuesday’s vote.
Donalds, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, leads all major polls by double-digit margins, according to the latest surveys conducted between July 14 and August 10. The congressman has maintained a consistent advantage over his nearest competitors, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins and businessman James Fishback, while former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner trails further behind.
Core Facts: Donalds’ Dominant Position
Byron Donalds is the overwhelming favorite in the Republican primary for Florida governor, with every major poll and prediction market indicating a near-certain victory. Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket placed Donalds’ odds at 98.4% and 99%, respectively, as of Monday morning. Public and partisan polls reflect a similar consensus, though the size of his lead varies by pollster.
A Quantus Insights survey of 635 likely Republican voters, conducted July 27–29 for the partisan client America First Insight, found Donalds at 50%, 34 points ahead of Collins at 16%. Fishback trailed at 12%, while Renner registered 4%. A Targoz Market Research poll of 532 likely voters, conducted July 20–26 for the James Madison Institute, showed Donalds at 49% to Collins’ 18%, a 31-point margin. Renner drew 8% and Fishback 4% in that survey.
A Political Matrix and The Listener Group poll of 1,020 likely voters, conducted July 21–22, showed a tighter race, with Donalds at 32%, Renner at 19%, and Fishback at 13%, though 32% of respondents were undecided. The widest margin came from a Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll for the Donalds campaign, conducted July 14–16, which had Donalds at 53% to Collins’ 10%, a 43-point spread. A second Fabrizio Lee poll released August 10 showed Donalds climbing to 54%. Earlier surveys from Emerson College and others also placed Donalds in the lead, though with varying margins.
Key Contenders and Their Standing
Byron Donalds has positioned himself as the frontrunner, leveraging President Donald Trump’s endorsement to bolster his campaign. Trump’s support has been a central factor in Donalds’ rise, with the former president publicly backing the congressman in a high-profile primary. Donalds has also emphasized his conservative record, positioning himself as a continuation of Florida’s current leadership under Governor Ron DeSantis, though DeSantis has not endorsed any candidate.
Jay Collins, the lieutenant governor, has emerged as Donalds’ primary challenger but remains significantly behind in polling. Collins has sought to contrast himself with Donalds by highlighting his executive experience in state government, though his campaign has struggled to gain traction. James Fishback, a businessman, and Paul Renner, a former Florida House Speaker, round out the top-tier candidates but trail far behind in both polling and prediction markets.
Governor DeSantis’ Role and Uncertain Endorsement
Governor Ron DeSantis has not endorsed any candidate in the Republican primary, a decision that has drawn attention given his influence in Florida politics. DeSantis has previously criticized Donalds, stating in February 2025 that Donalds had not been "a part of any of the victories that we’ve had here over these last few years." DeSantis added, "He’s just not been a part of it. He’s been in other states campaigning doing that and that’s fine, but OK, then deliver results up there."
Despite DeSantis’ criticism, Donalds has expressed confidence that the governor will ultimately support the Republican nominee. In a Fox News interview on Sunday, Donalds stated, "Gov. DeSantis and all Republicans in our state know that we can leave nothing to chance. We can’t just rest in our laurels. I anticipate to have the governor’s support, and we move forward."
DeSantis’ office has not responded to requests for comment on whether he will back the eventual Republican nominee. His silence has fueled speculation about his intentions, with some analysts suggesting he may withhold endorsement to maintain influence in the general election.
General Election Prospects
If Donalds secures the Republican nomination, he is expected to face David Jolly, a former Republican-turned-Democrat congressman, in the November general election. Jolly’s candidacy has drawn attention as a potential Democratic challenger in a state that has trended heavily Republican in recent years. Polling and political analysts suggest that Donalds would enter the general election as the strong favorite, given Florida’s partisan leanings.
Campaign Dynamics and Strategy
Donalds’ campaign has emphasized grassroots mobilization and conservative messaging, aligning closely with Trump’s political brand. The congressman has positioned himself as a defender of Florida’s conservative policies, including opposition to COVID-19 mandates, support for parental rights in education, and advocacy for law enforcement. His opponents, meanwhile, have sought to challenge his record in Congress, arguing that he has not done enough to address Floridians’ concerns at the federal level.
The primary election will conclude on Tuesday, with results expected later that evening. Political observers will be closely watching turnout and the margin of Donalds’ victory, as well as any shifts in DeSantis’ stance on endorsing the eventual nominee.