Florida’s gubernatorial general election will feature Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) and former Rep. David Jolly (D-FL) after both candidates secured their party’s nominations in the August 18 primaries. Donalds, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, defeated a crowded Republican field with 48.7% of the vote, while Jolly won the Democratic primary with 61.6% of the vote, according to the Associated Press.
The race now sets up a November showdown in a state where Republicans have not lost a gubernatorial election since 1994. Polling indicates a tight race, with recent surveys showing Donalds leading Jolly by one to five percentage points in hypothetical matchups.
Key developments in the race:
Primary results and endorsements
- Donalds, a member of the House Freedom Caucus and a vocal Trump ally, secured the Republican nomination after defeating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (24.8%) and other challengers. Trump’s endorsement, issued before Donalds formally announced his campaign in February 2025, was a central factor in his primary victory.
- Jolly, a former Republican congressman who left the GOP in 2018 and later joined the Democratic Party, won his primary with a commanding lead. His running mate is former Rep. Gwen Graham, a moderate Democrat from Florida.
- Neither candidate faced a competitive challenge in their respective primaries, with both races called shortly after polls closed.
Polling and voter dynamics
- A Hart Research Associates poll conducted ahead of the primaries found Jolly leading Donalds 48% to 37% among independent voters, with only 11% undecided. However, in a general election matchup, the poll showed Jolly ahead by just one point (46% to 45%), with 9% undecided.
- A University of North Florida survey last month gave Donalds a 46% to 41% advantage over Jolly, a margin described as unusually narrow for Florida’s recent statewide elections.
- Independents remain a critical bloc, with 76% expressing “major doubts” about Donalds when presented with criticism of his stance on data centers and potential tax breaks for the industry, according to the Hart poll. Donalds has not explicitly proposed new tax breaks but has received campaign contributions from AI companies.
Policy contrasts and campaign themes
- Data centers and economic policy: Jolly has proposed a moratorium on large-scale data center construction in Florida, citing environmental and affordability concerns. Donalds, while emphasizing environmental protections and ratepayer interests, has supported data center development as part of his broader deregulatory and pro-growth platform.
- Affordability and infrastructure: Donalds has campaigned on lower taxes, deregulation, and infrastructure improvements, including Everglades restoration. Jolly has framed his campaign as a response to voter frustration with rising costs, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat in a state trending Republican.
- Cultural and political rhetoric: Donalds has labeled Jolly a “Trojan horse” for the far left, accusing him of seeking to undo conservative policies enacted under Gov. Ron DeSantis. Jolly has countered that Donalds prioritizes “culture wars” over addressing Florida’s affordability crisis.
Campaign outlook and historical context
- Florida’s political landscape has shifted significantly in recent years, with Republicans holding a registration advantage and winning statewide races by wide margins. DeSantis won re-election in 2022 by nearly 20 points, and Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024.
- Despite this trend, Democrats see Jolly’s candidacy as a test of whether the state remains competitive. Jolly’s moderate profile is seen as a potential counter to progressive nominees who have struggled in recent Florida elections.
- Both candidates have signaled their intention to pivot to the general election immediately, with Donalds challenging Jolly to three fall debates and Jolly initially declining until after the primaries.
Next steps
- The general election will be held on November 3, 2026, with both campaigns expected to focus on affordability, economic growth, and cultural issues.
- Polling suggests the race could remain competitive through Election Day, with independents and undecided voters playing a decisive role.