Iranian officials have assessed potential attacks on US military targets in Europe if the conflict with the United States escalates, according to a report citing regime insiders. The Financial Times reported that Iranian forces have evaluated striking American assets in Bulgaria and Cyprus, including a British air base in Cyprus that was targeted by a drone in March. The assessment also includes the possibility of targeting subsea fiber-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz under certain escalation scenarios.
Escalation Assessments and Regional Tensions
Iranian military and security leaders have indicated a shift toward a more aggressive posture, with senior officials warning of a potential move to a "fully offensive" strategy. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has previously stated that any base used to launch attacks on Iranian territory would be considered a legitimate target. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump stated that there are 'no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled' with Tehran, further reducing diplomatic engagement.
Diplomatic and Military Developments
Negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, have stalled. Trump has claimed the strait is under US control, though observed ship traffic remains low. Earlier this week, an attack on a cargo vessel transiting the strait resulted in one fatality. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates announced it had paused all trade, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran until further notice, following the detection of two ballistic missiles launched from Iran toward its territorial waters.
Regional Responses and Strategic Shifts
Bulgaria approved the use of its Bezmer air base for US refueling aircraft last month, while Cyprus has been identified as a potential retaliatory target due to its hosting of a British air base. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei recently appointed a series of veteran military and security hardliners to key positions, signaling a consolidation of hardline influence in Tehran. Analysts note that while Iran’s missile capabilities pose a 'real, but limited' threat to targets in Europe, the regime’s willingness to consider broader retaliation reflects a defiant stance amid escalating tensions.
Background: The Strait of Hormuz and Ceasefire Collapse
The 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran expired on Monday, with no plans to extend it. Control of the Strait of Hormuz remains a central point of contention, with both sides asserting competing claims over the waterway’s operational status. Observers report minimal commercial traffic through the strait, despite official statements from Washington and Tehran.