A new Emerson College poll released on August 21, 2024, indicates that former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff hold early leads over potential Republican opponents in the 2028 presidential election.
Buttigieg leads both Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance by 5 points in hypothetical general election matchups, according to the survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted from August 16-17, 2024. Buttigieg’s support stands at 49%, while Rubio and Vance each garner 44%, with 7-8% of voters undecided. Ossoff matches Buttigieg’s performance against Vance, also leading by 5 points (49% to 44%), and holds a 3-point lead over Rubio (47% to 44%).
The poll, which carries a ±3 percentage point margin of error, suggests that Democratic candidates may have an early advantage in potential 2028 contests. Other tested Democrats, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, also show leads over both Rubio and Vance, though by narrower margins.
Polling Context and Methodology
The Emerson College survey provides an early snapshot of voter preferences ahead of the 2028 election cycle, a period when prospective candidates typically begin testing messaging and building name recognition. While polls at this stage primarily reflect initial name recognition and early momentum, they can influence fundraising potential and media attention for candidates.
The poll tested matchups involving five Democratic candidates—Buttigieg, Ossoff, Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez—against the two leading Republican contenders, Rubio and Vance. Rubio and Vance are viewed as top-tier GOP prospects if they choose to run, according to political analysts cited in the survey.
Key Findings: Democratic Advantages and Republican Challenges
The data indicates that Buttigieg and Ossoff are the strongest Democratic performers against both Rubio and Vance, each holding a 5-point lead in their respective matchups. Newsom also leads Vance by 5 points and Rubio by 2 points, while Harris and Ocasio-Cortez were not specified in the poll’s head-to-head results.
The survey suggests that undecided voters may play a decisive role, particularly in races involving Vance, where 8% of respondents remained undecided compared to 7% in the Buttigieg-Rubio matchup. Analysts note that Rubio’s performance against Democrats is slightly stronger than Vance’s in comparative matchups, though both Republicans trail the leading Democratic candidates in the poll.
Implications for the 2028 Election
Political observers highlight that these early polls are not predictive of final outcomes but serve as indicators of candidate viability. The Emerson College survey aligns with broader trends suggesting that Democratic candidates may have an early edge in hypothetical 2028 matchups, though analysts caution that voter preferences often shift significantly as the election approaches.
The poll’s findings come as prospective candidates on both sides prepare for potential campaigns, with primary announcements expected after the 2024 midterms. Fundraising and media attention are likely to intensify as candidates seek to solidify their positions in the emerging 2028 landscape.