The U.S. military has conducted a covert operation to facilitate the transit of 10 million barrels of oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz via a southern channel along Oman’s coast, according to a report citing two anonymous U.S. officials. The operation, which began two months ago, involves guiding 15–20 tankers nightly through the strait in scheduled convoys under military supervision. This effort has allowed oil exports to reach approximately half of pre-war volumes, easing pressure on global oil supplies amid ongoing conflict with Iran.
U.S. officials assert control over southern lane
One official stated, “We have been controlling the southern lane of the Strait of Hormuz for two months now. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps can be a nuisance, but they don't control the strait. We do.” The operation is coordinated by a task force based at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, in collaboration with Gulf partners. Tankers use the southern route based on U.S. military instructions, with inbound and outbound convoys organized nightly.
Iran disputes U.S. claims, enforces northern route
Iran maintains that the strait is closed to ships unless they enter and exit via its Unilateral Scheme (northern route), previously reserved for inbound traffic. Tehran has not acknowledged the U.S. operation but has periodically disrupted shipping in the region, including a missile attack on Aug. 18 that underscored tensions over control of the waterway. The expiration of a 60-day memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran on Aug. 17 has further strained relations, with neither side indicating a willingness to back down from competing claims.
Oil export volumes remain disputed
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported on Aug. 14 that 14–15 million barrels of crude were being exported daily from the Gulf, including 5–7 million barrels from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE via a “shuttle system” that transfers oil to ships in the Gulf of Oman. However, ship-tracking services like Kpler, Lloyd’s Intelligence, and MarineTraffic note that much of this traffic occurs in “dark transits”—without transponders or electronic navigation beacons—making verification difficult. Independent analysts estimate actual volumes at closer to 5 million barrels per day, significantly lower than U.S. claims.
Global shippers reject Iranian sovereignty claims
Global shipping companies and the U.S. Navy continue to operate under the UN-authorized southern route, citing international law that designates the strait as a transit passage open to all nations. The U.S. has reinforced its stance with a naval blockade targeting Iranian shipping, aiming to curtail Tehran’s economic leverage. President Donald Trump reiterated on Aug. 14 that the blockade remains in effect, stating, “The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect.”
Impact on oil markets and regional stability
Before the war began on Feb. 28, roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day transited the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for 20% of global oil demand. The U.S. operation has helped stabilize oil prices, which surged following the conflict. However, the discrepancy between U.S. claims and independent tracking data raises questions about the accuracy of reported volumes and the sustainability of the operation amid ongoing hostilities.