Michigan’s Senate race remains deadlocked after a new AARP survey shows Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holding a one-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers among likely voters. The poll, conducted August 9-11, 2026, found El-Sayed at 48% and Rogers at 47%, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. A separate Fox News poll from August 6-10 also showed Rogers ahead by four points (51%-47%), underscoring the race’s volatility.
Older voters emerge as decisive bloc
The AARP survey highlights the influence of voters aged 50 and older, who split sharply along party lines. Rogers leads among this group 52%-43%, while El-Sayed holds a 28-point advantage over Republican gubernatorial challenger John James in the same demographic. The poll also found that 86% of voters 50+ describe themselves as "extremely motivated" to vote, compared to 71% of younger voters.
Candidates clash over debate scheduling
The race has been marked by a public feud over debate participation. The Michigan Debate Commission invited both candidates to a September 15 event, but Rogers has not yet confirmed his attendance. El-Sayed criticized Rogers’ delay, tweeting flight options from Florida to Detroit and calling him "Mike Dodgers." Rogers responded that his schedule has been "jammed up" due to campaign events with Democratic primary voters who backed Rep. Haley Stevens, El-Sayed’s primary opponent.
Jewish Democrats break ranks to endorse Rogers
A group of Jewish Democrats in Michigan has publicly endorsed Rogers, citing concerns over El-Sayed’s past statements and policy positions. Led by Detroit businessman Eric Bronstein, the coalition argues that El-Sayed’s rhetoric has "demonized Jews" and "equivocated on terrorism." The letter, obtained by Jewish Insider, states: "We believe these core messages of his candidacy are bad for the Democratic Party, harmful to a safe and thriving Jewish community in Michigan, and detrimental to the future of the country." Democratic Michigan State Rep. Karen Whitsett has also endorsed Rogers.
Gubernatorial race shows Benson’s wider lead
In the gubernatorial contest, Democrat Jocelyn Benson holds a five-point lead over Republican John James (49%-44%) among all likely voters. Among voters 50+, James leads by one point, but older swing voters favor Benson by 28 points.
Polling discrepancies and voter motivation
The AARP poll’s findings contrast with other surveys. A Fox News poll showed Rogers ahead by four points, while an EPIC-MIRS poll (not detailed in the sources) reportedly showed El-Sayed leading. Analysts attribute the discrepancies to variations in sample composition and methodology. Notably, 96% of Republicans back Rogers in the Fox News poll, while 91% of Democrats support El-Sayed, with support dropping to 69% among non-DSA Democrats and independents.
Campaign strategies diverge
Rogers has actively courted disaffected Democrats, launching a "Democrats for Mike Rogers" coalition to appeal to voters uncomfortable with El-Sayed’s progressive platform. El-Sayed, meanwhile, has framed Rogers as a "carpetbagger" due to his Florida residence, pointing to two flight options from Florida to Michigan as proof Rogers could attend the debate.
The race remains one of the most closely watched in the 2026 midterms, with older voters and swing voters poised to determine the outcome.