A leading election forecaster has moved the Senate races in Texas and Iowa from Lean Republican to Toss Up, citing competitive polling and shifting political dynamics in both states. The Cook Political Report updated its ratings on Aug. 20, also shifting both states’ governor races toward Democrats while noting Republicans retain structural advantages on the Senate map.
Key developments in Senate races
In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is the nominee challenging Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who faces a competitive race despite his party’s historical advantage. The Cook Political Report highlighted that Talarico’s polling has been more consistently competitive than Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 bid against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), with public and private GOP surveys showing a tied race. Republicans reportedly spent $59 million in Paxton’s primary to block his nomination, and Paxton has trailed a generic Republican in internal polling. The report noted Talarico’s past public comments on gender as potential liabilities Republicans may exploit, though millions in advertising against him have not yet materialized.
In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in a race the Cook Political Report described as a shift driven by the political environment rather than Hinson’s campaign strength. The forecaster cited tariffs and rising costs for fertilizer and diesel as pressures on Iowa’s agriculture economy, with the Senate Leadership Fund committing $33 million to the race. The report emphasized that Trump won both states by more than 13 points in prior elections, making the races unusually competitive for Democrats, who need a net gain of four seats to flip the Senate.
Governor races shift toward Democrats
The Cook Political Report also adjusted its ratings for governor races in both states, moving them in Democrats’ favor while noting Republicans remain favored in Texas. The forecaster did not provide detailed rationale for the governor race shifts beyond broader political trends.
Structural advantages and Democratic challenges
Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors editor for the Cook report, reiterated that Republicans maintain structural advantages on the Senate map this cycle. Democrats, she noted, “still need almost every key race to break their way” to secure a majority. The report underscored that while the races in Texas and Iowa are now rated as toss-ups, the GOP’s historical strength in these states remains a significant factor.
Potential wild cards
The Cook Political Report flagged a libertarian candidate on the Texas ballot as a potential spoiler who could draw votes from either major-party nominee. In Iowa, the report described Hinson’s campaign as “strong and well-funded”, suggesting the race’s competitiveness stems more from external economic pressures than candidate weaknesses.