South Carolina Republicans will vote Tuesday in a special runoff to select a nominee for the Senate seat previously held by the late Senator Lindsey Graham. The contest pits Senator Darline Graham, appointed by Governor Henry McMaster to fill the vacancy, against Representative Ralph Norman, a member of the House Freedom Caucus.
Prediction markets and recent polling suggest Graham remains the frontrunner, though Norman has narrowed the gap in the final days. As of Monday, Graham held a 68% chance of victory on Kalshi and 77% on Polymarket, down from 89% on August 17. A Trafalgar Group poll conducted August 8-10 showed Graham leading Norman 26% to 20% in the initial primary, with undecided voters and supporters of other candidates poised to influence the outcome.
Both campaigns have received national attention. Graham secured President Donald Trump’s endorsement and campaigned with him in Myrtle Beach on Friday, where she pledged to vote “to Lindsey Graham’s right” on issues like illegal immigration. Norman, meanwhile, has highlighted Graham’s debate performance, asserting at a Friday town hall that she “will get beaten by the Democrat” and pointing to a Democratic opponent as a potential advantage for his campaign.
The runoff follows a special primary in August where no candidate secured a majority. Graham won 33% of the vote, while Norman finished second. The winner will face the Democratic nominee in the general election to serve the remainder of the late senator’s term.
Campaigns for both candidates did not respond to requests for comment via email from Newsweek.
Key Context and Background
The special election was triggered by the death of Senator Lindsey Graham in July. Governor McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham, to the seat, a decision that drew both support and criticism within the state’s Republican Party. Norman, a conservative firebrand, has positioned himself as the more combative alternative, emphasizing his alignment with the House Freedom Caucus and its policy priorities.
Polling in the runoff has been limited, but prediction markets aggregate real-money wagers to estimate outcomes. Analysts note that such markets reflect trader sentiment at a given moment and do not guarantee future results. The narrowing odds for Graham in recent days suggest heightened competition, though she retains a significant advantage heading into Tuesday’s vote.
What to Watch
Voter turnout and the preferences of supporters of eliminated candidates from the August primary will be critical. Analysts will also scrutinize any late-breaking developments, such as endorsements or campaign events, for their potential impact on the final result.