A new poll shows Republican Steve Hilton has narrowed his deficit against Democrat Xavier Becerra in the race for California governor to eight percentage points, according to a survey conducted August 14–16.
The poll, commissioned by Hilton’s campaign and conducted by David Wolfson of Columbia University’s Political Analytics graduate program, found Becerra leading 49.2% to 41% among 912 registered voters, with 9.8% undecided. The survey used MMS text-to-web methodology and carries a 3.3-point margin of error.
The latest results mark a significant shift from a prior survey conducted by the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies in early August. That poll, conducted August 3–9 among 2,310 likely voters in partnership with the Los Angeles Times, showed Becerra ahead 55% to 37%, an 18-point margin.
Both campaigns responded to the new poll. Hilton’s campaign highlighted the narrowing gap, with Hilton stating in a statement to the California Post that Becerra’s support is declining as more voters learn about his record as HHS secretary. Hilton’s statement referenced oversight reports documenting gaps in sponsor screening and follow-up for unaccompanied migrant children, though it did not provide evidence to support the claim that thousands of children were sent into sex or labor trafficking.
Becerra’s campaign countered by emphasizing his focus on lowering the cost of living for working families and opposing policies associated with former President Donald Trump and Hilton. A spokesperson for Becerra stated in response to the Berkeley poll that voters support Becerra’s stance on economic issues and his opposition to Trump-endorsed policies.
The race for California governor remains highly competitive, with the latest poll indicating a tightening race less than three months before the general election. Political analysts note that shifts in polling margins can reflect changing voter sentiment, campaign messaging, or external events influencing public opinion.