U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) said the Texas Senate race will become a $200 million fight, as Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in November. Cruz made the remarks during an Aug. 24 appearance on CBS Mornings, predicting a competitive contest despite his confidence in Paxton’s victory.
The race has drawn national attention as Republicans seek to retain control of the Senate, where they currently hold a 53-47 majority. Democrats would need to flip four seats to secure a majority in the upper chamber. Recent polling shows the race is a statistical tie, with the Cook Political Report and Fox News reclassifying the seat from Republican-leaning to a toss-up on Aug. 20.
Key developments in the race
- Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a May GOP runoff, a victory that followed a record-setting primary battle and intraparty divisions. Cornyn had held the seat since 2002.
- Talarico secured the Democratic nomination in March after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the primary, avoiding a runoff.
Cruz acknowledged Paxton’s bruised standing following the primary but emphasized the attorney general’s resilience. “When you face that many attack ads, you're a little bit bruised. I mean, that's just the nature of politics,” Cruz said. He also criticized Talarico’s prospects in Texas, stating, “Talarico would be a great candidate in California, but not one for Texas.”
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) downplayed the August dynamics, telling ABC News on Aug. 23 that the race’s outcome would hinge on November turnout. “It doesn’t matter what is happening in August,” Abbott said. “November is where it really counts.”
Funding and national stakes
The race is expected to become one of the most expensive Senate contests in U.S. history, with Cruz indicating he would campaign with Paxton and deploy resources from his super PAC. Republicans have rallied behind Paxton despite his polarizing primary victory, which drew opposition from Senate GOP leadership and a last-minute endorsement from former President Donald Trump.
Democrats, meanwhile, see an opportunity to flip a seat long held by Republicans. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, but recent polling suggests a competitive environment. The outcome could influence control of the Senate, where Republicans are defending a narrow majority.
Polling and electoral outlook
- August polling shows a near-even split between Paxton and Talarico, with Talarico holding a slight nominal lead in some surveys.
- The Cook Political Report and Fox News both upgraded the race to toss-up status on Aug. 20, reflecting heightened uncertainty.
- Analysts note that high turnout and national fundraising will be critical factors in determining the winner.
Campaign strategies
- Paxton’s camp is focusing on consolidating Republican support after a divisive primary, while also appealing to conservative voters wary of establishment figures.
- Talarico’s campaign is emphasizing grassroots organizing and policy contrasts, aiming to mobilize Democratic-leaning voters in a state where turnout often favors Republicans.
The race remains fluid, with both sides preparing for a high-stakes, high-cost battle that could reshape the Senate landscape.