A new poll from the University of Texas and Texas Politics Project shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by 3 percentage points in the Texas Senate race, marking a shift from earlier surveys. The poll, conducted from August 5–13, 2026, surveyed 1,200 registered voters with a margin of error of ±2.83 percentage points.
Talarico holds a 42% to 39% lead in the latest data, a reversal from June 2026 when Paxton led by a similar margin. The survey also highlights four warning signs for Paxton: declining support, lower GOP voter motivation, weaker favorability ratings compared to Talarico, and President Trump’s underwater approval rating in Texas.
Race Shifts as Polling Shows Competitive Landscape
The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll underscores the race’s volatility, with Talarico’s campaign pointing to Paxton’s personal and political challenges as factors in the shift. Paxton, who was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on charges including securities fraud, has faced scrutiny over his tenure and legal troubles. His campaign has not publicly addressed the poll’s findings.
Talarico, a state representative and former seminarian, has framed his campaign around economic concerns and Republican fatigue, positioning himself as an alternative to Paxton’s conservative base. His campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
Key Factors Behind the Shift
The poll’s findings suggest three primary dynamics influencing the race:
1. Declining GOP Enthusiasm
The survey indicates lower motivation among Republican voters compared to previous cycles, with some voters expressing dissatisfaction with Paxton’s leadership. Analysts note that Paxton’s primary victory over Sen. John Cornyn—who was seen as more electable—may have weakened broader GOP support.
2. Trump’s Declining Influence in Texas
While Texas remains a Republican-leaning state—backing Trump by 14 points in 2024—his approval rating is underwater in the latest poll. Democrats argue this could suppress turnout among conservative voters who typically back GOP candidates.
3. Economic Concerns and Republican Vulnerability
The poll highlights cost-of-living pressures and economic dissatisfaction as key factors driving voter frustration. Democrats view Texas as a potential pickup opportunity in 2026, though the state has not elected a Democrat statewide in over 30 years.
Historical Context and Long-Term Implications
The race echoes 2018’s closely contested Senate battle, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke narrowly lost to Sen. Ted Cruz. However, Democrats describe Talarico’s campaign as more strategically cautious, avoiding early overconfidence while capitalizing on Paxton’s vulnerabilities.
Republicans, meanwhile, have defended Texas as a top-tier battleground, with the Senate Majority PAC including it among states like Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio where competitive races could shape control of the Senate.
Campaign Responses
Both campaigns have yet to release detailed reactions to the poll. The Paxton campaign has not publicly addressed the survey, while the Talarico campaign has emphasized grassroots organizing and economic messaging in recent weeks.
The next major developments in the race are expected ahead of the November 2026 general election, with further polling and debate performances likely to influence voter perceptions.