A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released August 25 shows state Rep. James Talarico (D) leading Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by 3 percentage points in the U.S. Senate race, with 42% support to Paxton’s 39%. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown holds 3%, while 14% of respondents remain undecided.
The poll, conducted among 1,200 registered Texas voters between August 5–13, has a margin of error of ±2.83 percentage points. In a June survey, Paxton led Talarico by 1 point within the margin of error, with 43% to 42% support. The latest results mark a shift in the Senate race dynamics, though analysts note the race remains statistically tied.
Meanwhile, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott holds a 5-point lead over state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) in the gubernatorial race, 45% to 40%. A separate issue gaining traction across Texas is public opposition to data centers, with 57% of voters opposing their construction in their communities and 30% in support.
Senate Race: Talarico Gains Ground
Talarico, a 37-year-old state representative and former Presbyterian seminarian, has consolidated Democratic support in recent months. The August poll reflects a 3-point advantage for Talarico, up from a 1-point lead for Paxton in June. Paxton, who ousted incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary with Donald Trump’s endorsement, faces a competitive challenge in what is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched Senate races of 2026.
An Emerson College poll released August 13 showed Paxton at 47% and Talarico at 46%, indicating a statistical tie. Polling expert Nate Silver noted that Beto O’Rourke outperformed his 2018 polling margins in his narrow loss to Sen. Ted Cruz, suggesting Texas polls may not systematically overstate Democratic support.
Governor’s Race: Abbott Maintains Lead
Abbott, seeking a fourth term, leads Hinojosa by 5 points in the gubernatorial race. The University of Texas poll found 45% support for Abbott and 40% for Hinojosa, with 15% undecided. The race has drawn less national attention than the Senate contest but remains a key battleground for Texas Democrats.
Public Opposition to Data Centers
A notable finding in the poll is overwhelming opposition to data centers, with 57% of Texas voters expressing disapproval of their construction in their communities. Only 30% support such projects, while 13% are undecided. The issue has emerged as a unifying concern across political lines, though no major legislative action has been taken on the matter.
Polling Methodology
The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll surveyed 1,200 self-reported registered voters between August 5–13. The results were weighted for demographic adjustments, yielding a margin of error of ±2.83 percentage points (or ±3.47% adjusted for weighting). The poll’s methodology aligns with standard practices for statewide surveys in Texas.