Hawaii officials have issued a tropical storm warning for offshore waters as Hurricane Lowell rapidly intensifies to a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. The storm is currently located 470 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, moving west at 12 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Honolulu warned of significant seas up to 18 feet and life-threatening surf and rip current conditions beginning Wednesday. While Lowell is not forecast to make landfall, its proximity and strength will generate hazardous marine conditions across the Hawaiian Islands through the end of the week. The NHC confirmed that Lowell will remain a major hurricane through at least Sunday night.
Two other storms are active in the Pacific basin: Hurricane Karina, a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, and Tropical Storm Marie, which is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday. Both storms are tracking over waters 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal, fueled by a historically strong El Niño event.
Hurricane Lowell’s Path and Intensification
Hurricane Lowell underwent rapid intensification, jumping from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in roughly 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that satellite intensity estimates were struggling to keep pace with the storm’s strengthening, describing it as “characteristic of a rapidly intensifying cyclone.”
Current forecasts indicate Lowell will continue strengthening over the next 12 to 24 hours, with winds potentially reaching 150 mph or higher. The storm is expected to turn northwest or north by the weekend as an upper-level trough weakens the ridge steering it westward. This shift could bring Lowell closer to the Hawaiian Islands, though the NHC’s latest projections show the storm’s eye passing south of the islands without making landfall.
El Niño’s Role in Pacific Storm Activity
Meteorologists attribute the unusually high Pacific storm activity to a strong El Niño event, which typically increases tropical cyclone formation in the eastern and central Pacific while suppressing activity in the Atlantic. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva stated that the current setup aligns with long-standing expectations for El Niño years.
Hurricane Karina, currently a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, is tracking toward the open ocean and could briefly reach Category 5 intensity overnight. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Marie, located 510 miles south of Baja California, is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday. All three storms are drawing energy from warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, a hallmark of El Niño.
Atlantic Quiet as Pacific Storms Rage
While the Pacific basin remains highly active, the Atlantic Ocean has seen no named storms this week. Tropical Depression Edouard, which weakened from a named storm, moved inland and dissipated. NOAA meteorologist Erica Grow Cei noted that the current imbalance between the Pacific and Atlantic basins reflects the typical influence of El Niño on hurricane seasons.
Forecasters had anticipated reduced Atlantic activity during this El Niño event, and the absence of named storms so far aligns with those predictions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) continues to monitor the situation, though no immediate threats to the Atlantic coast have emerged.