President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he plans to campaign in Alaska in late October to support Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) ahead of the November midterm elections. The visit comes as Sullivan remains in a statistical tie with Democratic nominee Mary Peltola, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average.
The race is further complicated by Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, which has introduced multiple candidates with similar names, including Daniel J. Sullivan, a Republican challenger, and Gerald Heikes, another GOP candidate. Sullivan faces competition from Peltola and the third-party candidate, while Daniel J. Sullivan’s presence has drawn criticism from some observers. Trump has previously called the system “a crooked form of voting,” alleging it benefits Democrats, though no evidence supports this claim.
Trump’s Alaska trip and ranked-choice voting dominate Senate race
Trump’s endorsement of Sullivan follows his broader efforts to bolster Republican candidates in competitive races nationwide. He compared the tight Senate race in Alaska to another closely contested Texas Senate primary, where his preferred candidate, Ken Paxton, is also in a statistical tie. The president’s remarks came during a White House press briefing, where he reiterated his commitment to Sullivan’s reelection.
Ranked-choice voting adds complexity to Alaska’s Senate race
Alaska’s top-four primary system, which advanced the top four vote-getters to the general election regardless of party affiliation, has created an unusual dynamic. In addition to the incumbent senator and Peltola, Daniel J. Sullivan and Gerald Heikes secured spots on the ballot. Daniel J. Sullivan, a former teacher, has faced scrutiny over his eligibility and the potential for voter confusion due to his shared name with the incumbent. An Alaska election official initially ruled him ineligible, citing a “determined effort and a deliberate attempt” to mislead voters, but an appeal allowed his name to remain on the ballot.
The race for Alaska’s sole House seat has also drawn attention after Bill Hafner, an independent candidate convicted of making threatening communications to state officials, advanced to the general election. Hafner is currently serving a 20-year prison sentence in New York but remains on the ballot due to Alaska’s election rules.
Polling and political dynamics shape the race
As of the latest projections, Sullivan and Peltola lead the field, with Daniel J. Sullivan polling at approximately 2.5% in the primary. The presence of multiple candidates with similar names has raised questions about ballot clarity and potential voter confusion. Trump’s criticism of the ranked-choice system has amplified debates over its fairness, though the system was approved by Alaska voters in 2020 and has been used in previous elections.
The Senate race is widely viewed as a critical contest that could influence control of the chamber. Democrats currently hold a narrow majority, and Alaska’s outcome may hinge on the ranked-choice process, which requires candidates to secure a majority of votes to avoid eliminations and redistributions. If no candidate reaches 50%+1 in the first round, the lowest-performing candidate is eliminated, and their voters’ second choices are redistributed until a winner emerges.
Key dates and next steps
Trump’s campaign stop in Alaska is scheduled for one month before the November 3 election. Early voting in Alaska begins on October 20, with Election Day on November 3. The ranked-choice process will unfold over several days, with results potentially delayed as ballots are counted and redistributed.
The race remains fluid, with both campaigns and outside groups expected to intensify efforts in the final weeks. The outcome could have broader implications for the balance of power in Congress and the political landscape heading into 2024.