Science

UN: 'Very strong' El Niño to persist until February

World Meteorological Organization warns of intensified weather extremes and global impacts

By The Unbiased Times AI

September 3, 2026 • 12:40 PM• Updated September 3, 2026 • 1:31 PM

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GENEVA — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced on September 3 that the current El Niño event is set to become 'very strong' and will persist through February 2027, with peak intensity expected by the end of this year. The UN agency stated there is a nearly 100% chance the phenomenon will continue into early 2027, marking the first time such a definitive forecast has been issued.

El Niño, a natural climate cycle, is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This disrupts global weather patterns, often leading to floods, droughts, and extreme heat in various regions. While El Niño itself is not caused by climate change, scientists warn it will exacerbate existing climate impacts, including rising global temperatures and intensified weather extremes.

Key Developments

Forecast Upgrade: The WMO upgraded its assessment, stating El Niño is 'firmly established' and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months. Sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern tropical Pacific have already exceeded 2°C above average, a threshold typically associated with strong El Niño events.
Global Impact Timeline: The phenomenon is expected to peak by the end of 2024, with knock-on climate effects continuing into 2027. The delayed atmospheric response means global temperatures may rise further in 2025, following the record warmth observed in 2024.

Regional and Sectoral Impacts

The WMO and UN officials highlighted diverse and severe consequences across multiple regions and industries:

Asia-Pacific: Countries like India, Indonesia, and Australia face risks of weaker monsoons, wildfires, and erratic rainfall. India’s weaker monsoon could disrupt rice, sugar, cotton, and soybean production, while Indonesia may see intensified wildfires.
Latin America: Central American nations such as El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras are experiencing drought conditions, leading to crop failures and prompting emergency declarations. In Peru, anchovy fishing—a key industry for livestock feed—has suffered a 'devastating blow' due to shifting ocean temperatures.
Africa and South America: Southern Africa and parts of Brazil have faced record rainfall and flooding, while other regions endure prolonged droughts. Zimbabwe, for example, has documented severe drought impacts on agriculture and water supplies.
Global Economy and Energy: The WMO warned El Niño could disrupt energy production and demand, affecting hydropower, wind and solar output, oil and gas operations, and mining. Unpredictable weather patterns may lead to supply chain disruptions and price volatility in food and energy markets.

Scientific and Policy Responses

UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the current El Niño as being 'supersized before our eyes', emphasizing the need for immediate climate action to mitigate risks. The WMO has launched a 'major mobilization' to disseminate early warnings to vulnerable communities, aiming to reduce deaths, displacement, and environmental damage.

Governments and agencies are strengthening early warning systems and pre-emptively deploying medical assistance to high-risk areas. However, the unprecedented strength of this El Niño has raised concerns about the adequacy of existing preparedness measures.

Scientific Context and Long-Term Implications

El Niño is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which alternates between El Niño (warm phase) and La Niña (cool phase) every 2 to 7 years. During El Niño, trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to accumulate near the western coast of South America. This disrupts global atmospheric circulation, altering rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide.

While El Niño is a natural phenomenon, its interaction with human-induced climate change is intensifying its impacts. The 2023-24 El Niño contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record, and scientists caution that 2025 could surpass this record if current trends continue.

Expert Perspectives

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated: 'El Niño has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies.'

Guterres added: 'The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.'

Conclusion

The WMO’s latest assessment underscores the urgent need for coordinated global action to address the immediate and long-term risks posed by El Niño. While the phenomenon itself is natural, its interaction with climate change amplifies its destructive potential, demanding enhanced resilience measures and sustainable climate policies to safeguard vulnerable populations and economies.

Narrative Analysis

How different sources frame this story

Immediate Economic and Humanitarian Crisis

Sources: cnbc.com · bbci.co.uk

Focus

Prioritizes the economic and humanitarian toll of El Niño, emphasizing disruptions to food systems, energy markets, and vulnerable communities.

Evidence Subset

Cites specific examples of crop failures (El Salvador, India), fishing industry impacts (Peru), and energy sector vulnerabilities (hydropower, oil/gas).

Silhouette (Omissions)

Downplays the scientific context of El Niño as a natural phenomenon and focuses narrowly on near-term economic and social consequences.

Climate Change Amplification and Long-Term Risks

Sources: channelnewsasia.com · abc.net.au · dailymail.co.uk

Focus

Frames El Niño as a symptom of broader climate change, highlighting its role in exacerbating global warming and extreme weather events.

Evidence Subset

Emphasizes the record-breaking temperatures of 2024, the potential for 2025 to surpass this record, and the interaction between El Niño and human-induced climate change.

Silhouette (Omissions)

Minimizes detailed economic or regional impacts, focusing instead on the long-term climate trajectory and the need for systemic climate action.

UK-Specific and Geopolitical Concerns

Sources: independent.co.uk

Focus

Centers on the potential impacts of El Niño on the UK and broader geopolitical implications, such as energy security and international aid.

Evidence Subset

Highlights the UK’s vulnerability to indirect effects, such as energy price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions, while framing the issue as a global challenge requiring international cooperation.

Silhouette (Omissions)

Excludes detailed regional impacts outside the UK and focuses primarily on the UK’s perspective, potentially underrepresenting the severity of crises in other regions.

Cross-Narrative Analysis

How the narratives compare

The dominant narratives diverge significantly in their framing of El Niño’s implications. Coverage led by **CNBC and BBC** emphasizes the **immediate economic and humanitarian crises**, often citing specific regional disruptions (e.g., crop failures in Central America, fishing industry collapses in Peru) as proof of the phenomenon’s severity. In contrast, outlets like **Channel News Asia, ABC Australia, and Daily Mail** prioritize the **long-term climate change narrative**, linking El Niño to record global temperatures and the exacerbation of existing climate trends. Meanwhile, **The Independent** focuses narrowly on the **UK’s potential vulnerabilities**, such as energy price volatility and indirect economic impacts, which may lead readers to underestimate the broader global consequences. A reader relying solely on one silo would miss critical context: those exposed to the economic narrative might overlook the scientific consensus on climate change’s role, while those reading the climate-focused coverage might miss the immediate, tangible impacts on livelihoods and economies. The UK-centric narrative further risks narrowing the global perspective to a single country’s concerns.

This analysis identifies how media sources emphasize different aspects of the same story. No narrative is labeled as more accurate than others.

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