Hurricane Lowell rapidly intensified to Category 4 on Friday, with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph and gusts up to 185 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm is forecast to make a sharp northward turn Sunday, passing west of Hawaii’s westernmost islands late Monday while still at or near major hurricane strength.
Forecasters now project the storm’s center will remain offshore, west of Kauai, sparing the islands from the worst impacts of the hurricane’s eyewall. However, the National Hurricane Center warned that the storm’s track beyond Sunday remains uncertain, as its path will be determined by two merging weather features north of the Hawaiian Islands. A 100-mile shift in the storm’s trajectory could either expose Kauai and Niihau to hurricane-force winds and dangerous storm surge or pull the storm far enough west to hold those threats offshore.
As of Friday afternoon, dangerous surf is already building along south-facing shores, with heavy rain expected to arrive Sunday afternoon. The storm’s exact track will dictate the severity of impacts on Hawaii, though officials caution that hurricane conditions cannot be ruled out on Kauai and Niihau until the storm begins its turn north on Sunday.
Storm Track and Forecast Uncertainty
The latest forecast data incorporates aircraft reconnaissance and drone observations, refining the storm’s projected path slightly westward. The National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty indicates the probable path of the storm’s center, not the full extent of its impacts. Ensemble model guidance still spans outcomes from a direct landfall to a path more than 500 miles west of Niihau.
Meteorologists emphasize that predicting Lowell’s sharp turn is challenging, with the storm’s future direction hinging on atmospheric conditions north of Hawaii. Forecasters noted that “the track from Sunday onward remains in flux”, underscoring the difficulty in pinpointing exact impacts.
Broader Pacific Hurricane Activity and El Niño Context
Hurricane Lowell is one of three active hurricanes churning in the Pacific, alongside Karina and Marie, a level of activity consistent with El Niño conditions. This year’s El Niño event is forecast to be exceptionally strong, with sea surface temperatures at least 2 degrees Celsius above average in parts of the Pacific, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Lowell reached Category 5 strength Wednesday before weakening to Category 4, while Karina—currently a Category 2 storm—is expected to weaken further over the weekend. Hurricane Marie, located nearly 400 miles off Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula, is strengthening and could generate strong swells for parts of Mexico’s southwestern coast and Southern California through the weekend.
Hawaii is still recovering from multiple instances of heavy rain and flash flooding over the past six months, including devastating floods in March that dropped more than 25 inches of rain in parts of Oahu and 19 inches in Maui. Just weeks ago, Tropical Storm Lala brought intense flooding and strong winds to Oahu and the Big Island.
Potential Impacts on Southern California
While Hurricane Marie is expected to weaken over open water, its remnants may bring tropical moisture to Southern California, southern Nevada, and the western Four Corners this weekend. Forecasters do not anticipate flooding but warn of high surf and dangerous rip currents along south-facing beaches.
Marie’s moisture could deliver beneficial rain showers to the region, though officials emphasize that no flooding is expected at this time.