Voting concluded Sunday in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany’s eastern state, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to secure its first state-level government since World War II. Final polls showed the AfD leading at 41%, ahead of the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) at 23%, with results expected within hours of polls closing at 6 p.m. local time.
The AfD’s lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, declared the party’s rise “can no longer be stopped” during a final rally in Magdeburg, emphasizing that even if the party falls short of an outright majority, its historic breakthrough would continue sweeping across Germany. The election has drawn national attention as a test of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s strategy of countering the AfD by adopting stricter migration and security policies.
Immediate Results and Next Steps
Initial projections are expected shortly after polls close, with turnout estimated at approximately 1.7 million voters. An outright majority for the AfD would allow the party to bypass Germany’s longstanding “firewall” policy, which has prevented cooperation with far-right groups at the state and federal levels. If the AfD falls short, the CDU—currently leading a coalition government in the state—is expected to retain power, though the exact shape of any new coalition remains uncertain.
Policy Implications and Political Symbolism
The AfD’s potential victory in Saxony-Anhalt would mark the first time a far-right party has governed a German state since 1945. The party, which has been classified as “right-wing extremist” by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency in some branches, campaigns on restricting immigration, reducing ties with the European Union, and restoring relations with Russia. Its rise has been fueled by discontent over economic stagnation and frustration with mainstream parties’ handling of migration, particularly following the 2015 influx of over 1.3 million asylum seekers into Germany.
Coalition Dynamics and National Impact
All major parties in Saxony-Anhalt, including the CDU, have maintained a policy of non-cooperation with the AfD, citing its extremist ties. Siegmund has rejected the possibility of entering a coalition with mainstream parties, stating that those parties have “driven Germany into the ground” over the past three decades. The election is seen as a barometer for national sentiment ahead of the 2029 federal elections, with the AfD currently polling strongly across eastern Germany.
Historical Context and European Trends
Saxony-Anhalt, a former communist state with a population of 2.1 million, has been governed by the CDU in coalition with smaller parties for 24 years. The AfD’s potential win aligns with broader trends across Europe, where anti-immigration and nationalist parties have gained influence in countries such as Italy, Finland, and France. Analysts note that the party’s success reflects widespread dissatisfaction with economic policies and a backlash against Brussels’ approach to migration and governance.
What’s at Stake
Beyond Saxony-Anhalt, the election’s outcome could reshape Germany’s political landscape. A CDU-led coalition would signal a temporary halt to the AfD’s momentum, while an AfD majority would force a reckoning with the party’s integration into the German political system. The result may also influence Chancellor Merz’s strategy for the 2029 elections, where the AfD is expected to play a central role.