Republican Ken Paxton holds a 3-point lead over Democrat James Talarico in a new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, released August 5-13, as the Texas Senate race enters its final stretch before the November election. The poll shows Paxton at 39% to Talarico’s 42%, with 14% of voters expressing no preference on the named Senate ballot.
Trump-aligned groups commit $10M to Paxton’s campaign in early September, splitting funds between ads supporting Paxton and opposing Talarico. This follows months of Paxton trailing Talarico in fundraising, despite Paxton’s victory in a May Republican primary runoff against outgoing Sen. John Cornyn, who has not endorsed his former rival.
The poll also reveals a 7-point gap between Senate and House ballot preferences among Texas voters, with Republicans favored 48% to 44% on the generic congressional ballot. This suggests Paxton’s path to victory may depend more on Republican unity than personal appeal, given his history of controversies.
Key Developments in the Race
Paxton’s Polling Lead and Strategic Investments
Talarico, a state representative from Austin, leads among Democrats at 91%, while Paxton retains 79% support from Republicans—a decline from 84% in June. Independents favor Talarico 37% to 11%, with 43% undecided. The $10 million infusion from Trump’s political operation, announced September 5, marks a significant shift in the race’s financial landscape, as Paxton had been outspent by Talarico throughout the summer.
Cornyn’s Silence and Primary Fallout
Cornyn, who served in the Senate for 24 years, has not endorsed Paxton following their contentious primary. In a late August interview with the Texas Tribune, Cornyn described Paxton as a “poor campaigner” who is “lazy” and “doesn’t raise money.” Paxton, who won the runoff by 27 points, has not publicly addressed Cornyn’s remarks but has expressed hope for his support. When asked on Fox News whether he would receive Cornyn’s endorsement, Paxton replied, “You’d have to ask him. That’s totally up to him.”
Democratic Intraparty Dynamics
Talarico secured the Democratic nomination in March by defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in a primary. Crockett has not campaigned with Talarico, stating she will focus on “down-ballot” races instead. The lack of unified Democratic support contrasts with the party’s strong backing for Talarico in the Senate race.
Polling Context and Voter Sentiment
Republican Consolidation vs. Personal Scandals
While Paxton leads in the Senate matchup, the 7-point gap between Senate and House ballot preferences indicates that some Republican voters may be reluctant to support Paxton by name but still favor GOP candidates in general. Governor Greg Abbott maintains 86% support among Republicans in a trial ballot, suggesting party loyalty remains strong despite Paxton’s controversies.
Undecided Voters and Independent Leanings
Nearly half of independent voters (43%) remain undecided in the Senate race, with 37% favoring Talarico and 11% Paxton. The high percentage of undecideds could swing the race in either direction as Election Day approaches.
Campaign Strategies and External Influences
Trump’s Role in the Race
Former President Donald Trump has publicly backed Paxton, framing the Senate race as a test of MAGA loyalty. The $10 million ad spend from Trump’s political operation aims to counter Talarico’s financial advantage and reinforce Paxton’s conservative credentials. This marks a shift from the summer, when Paxton struggled to match Talarico’s fundraising.
Talarico’s Outreach and Democratic Unity
Talarico has emphasized his progressive platform, including education funding and healthcare expansion, to appeal to Texas voters. However, the absence of Crockett’s support on the campaign trail can limit his ability to consolidate Democratic voters. Crockett’s focus on down-ballot races may reflect broader Democratic strategy in a state where Republicans currently hold all statewide offices.