China’s exports surged 25% year-on-year in August, accelerating from July’s 23.9% growth, as global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and high-tech products bolstered trade activity, official customs data showed on Tuesday.
Imports also climbed 28.2% year-on-year, up from 27.5% in July, though both figures fell short of Bloomberg’s forecasts of 25.9% for exports and 31.0% for imports. The trade surplus expanded to $119.09 billion from $112.5 billion in July, reflecting the widening gap between export strength and domestic demand.
Exports of high-tech products, including semiconductors and AI-related components, drove the gains. In the first eight months of the year, exports of computers and related parts rose 49.4%, while shipments to the United States increased 34.4% year-on-year, compared to a 17% rise in July. Semiconductor export values more than doubled despite a modest 4.1% increase in volume, and car exports grew over 50% in both value and volume.
Imports remained robust but missed expectations, with economists forecasting a 30% increase. Analysts attributed the shortfall to ongoing tariff uncertainties, as companies rushed to ship goods to the U.S. before potential policy changes. Lynn Song, ING’s Greater China chief economist, noted that external demand has significantly outpaced domestic consumption, with tariff risks and the durability of the tech investment cycle as key factors to watch.
The trade figures arrive ahead of a high-stakes summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month, where economic tensions, including tariffs and trade imbalances, are expected to dominate discussions. Policymakers in Beijing have set a 4.5%-5% GDP growth target for 2025, but growth momentum has slowed, with the second-quarter expansion hitting a more than three-year low of 4.3%.
Domestic demand remains sluggish, with investment and consumption weakening further in July. Manufacturing activity also contracted for a second consecutive month, though some analysts, such as Neo Wang of Evercore ISI, expect stabilization in the second half of the year due to accelerated fiscal spending and policy urgency from Beijing. The government’s recent push to boost investment has helped arrest declines, though the trade rebound continues to rely heavily on external factors.
Key Highlights:
- Exports: 25% year-on-year growth (U.S. dollar terms), driven by AI, semiconductors, and EVs.
- Imports: 28.2% year-on-year growth, below forecasts, reflecting tariff-related caution.
- Trade Surplus: Expanded to $119.09 billion, up from $112.5 billion in July.
- Outlook: Analysts warn that the durability of the tech-driven export boom depends on global demand and policy stability.