Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico holds a 4-point lead over Republican incumbent Ken Paxton in a new AARP poll released Thursday, with Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 44%. The survey, conducted by Fabrizio Ward (led by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio) and Impact Research, reflects tightening competition in the race ahead of the November 3 general election.
Independent voters favor Talarico by 22 points, backing him 55% to 33%, while Paxton retains strong support among Republicans at 83%. Talarico’s net favorability stands at +7 points (42% favorable, 35% unfavorable), compared to Paxton’s -11 points (35% favorable, 46% unfavorable). The poll also shows Talarico receiving 9% support from Republicans, while Paxton garners just 2% from Democrats.
Talarico, a state representative and Presbyterian seminarian, has sought to broaden his appeal by securing endorsements from 21 current and former Republican officials, including judges, party delegates, and political advisers. The group, dubbed “Republicans for Talarico,” cited Paxton’s 2023 impeachment by the Texas House—over allegations of abusing his office to assist a political donor—as a key factor in their decision. The Texas Senate later acquitted Paxton of all 16 charges, and a separate federal investigation concluded without charges in 2024. Paxton has denied any wrongdoing.
Campaign Strategies and Rhetoric
Talarico’s campaign has emphasized Paxton’s legal controversies while positioning itself as a unifying force. In a statement announcing the Republican endorsements, Talarico said, “We’re bringing Texans together onto one team to take power back for working people. Because the real fight in this country isn’t left versus right—it’s top versus bottom.” The endorsements come as Republicans gather in Dallas for a midterm convention aimed at energizing the GOP base amid broader concerns about inflation, the economy, and foreign policy.
During a Thursday press conference, former President Donald Trump praised Paxton, stating, “I'm not sure if I like your look. I'm not sure if I like the way you dress. I don't like the way you talk. But you're the greatest attorney general, so therefore, that’s the only thing that matters. He’s the best attorney general in the country.” Trump’s remarks underscore the mixed signals within the Republican Party regarding Paxton’s candidacy.
Polling Context and Competitive Race
The AARP poll, conducted in partnership with Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, highlights a race that has drawn national attention. While Republicans have historically viewed the seat as safely conservative, Talarico’s polling lead and cross-party endorsements suggest a more competitive landscape. The survey’s findings reflect broader trends in Texas, where independent voters and suburban districts have shown increased volatility in recent elections.
Both campaigns have framed the race as a referendum on leadership and accountability. Talarico’s team has focused on Paxton’s impeachment and legal troubles, while Paxton’s supporters argue that Talarico’s positions on key issues—including his past remarks on gender and veganism—are out of step with Texas voters. The race remains one of the most closely watched contests in the state, with implications for both parties’ midterm strategies.